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PHPM Elliott Wave report

WisdomTree Physical Precious Metals

Week ending 24 Jul 2026 Close EUR 222.17 340 weekly observations
Current structure Possible Wave 4 trough
50/100 setup score 100/100 data quality
The setup score is a rules-based composite, not a probability or price forecast.
Investment view

What the current structure is saying

Based on weekly closing prices

Current read

The closing-price swing map is classified as possible wave 4 trough. Price is 12.2% below its 30-week trend. 3 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.

3 constructive · 1 neutral · 3 weak

What would confirm it

Evidence to look for next

  • A weekly close through 270.32, the nearest confirmed swing high.
  • Cycle pressure and the 20/40-week rhythms continuing to rise together.
  • Relative strength and market activity remaining above neutral.
What would challenge it

Bullish structure weakens below

EUR 129.06

Confirmed on 2026-01-02. Treat this as a structure reference, not an automatic trading level.

4-week return 0.0%
13-week return -14.5%
26-week return -26.9%
52-week return 72.1%
From 52-week high -34.0%
26-week volatility 27.3%
Wave structure

Price, trend and the active swing

The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Closing-price swing map

Weekly close against the 30-week trend and long-term Fair Value reference.

Close 30-week trend Fair Value
Active swing -17.8%

14 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 129.06

Pivot from 2026-01-02

Nearest confirmed resistance 270.32

Pivot from 2026-04-17

30-week trend 252.91

Price is -12.2% from trend

Fair Value reference 152.88

Price is 45.3% from Fair Value

52-week range position 45%

129.06 low · 336.68 high

Cycle timing

Are the main rhythms moving together?

Cycle readings describe timing pressure. They do not set a price target or guarantee the next turning point.

Pressure phaseTroughing

Current medium-term pressure direction

Multi-cycle alignmentMixed

50/100 constructive · 50/100 risk

Nearest trough window8 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Nearest crest window10 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Multi-cycle rhythm

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

Nominal cycle10w
Current phaseFalling
Reading-3.00
Recent amplitude1.95
Since last trough29w
Next trough window1w
Nominal cycle20w
Current phaseFalling
Reading-3.00
Recent amplitude4.20
Since last trough29w
Next trough window9w
Nominal cycle40w
Current phaseRising
Reading3.00
Recent amplitude11.07
Since last trough98w
Next trough window18w
Nominal cycle80w
Current phaseRising
Reading2.99
Recent amplitude41.17
Since last trough88w
Next trough window8w
Confirmation

Does price behaviour support the wave count?

Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.

43% confirmation alignment
Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

12.2% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Troughing
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

Outperforming its benchmark

+0.9
Market activity

Participation is weak

-38.8
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.8
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+72.1
Combined reading Mixed

3 constructive, 3 weak and 1 neutral measures.

This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Risk and participation

How much movement sits behind the pattern?

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

52-week low129.06
52-week high336.68
Annualised volatility27.3%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range4.3%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-26.9%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume139%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

Historical context

What followed similar readings in this security?

Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.

15 similar weekly states

Median forward return

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
0.0%
13w
0.0%
26w
0.0%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 14 0% 0.0% -5.6% to 0.0%
13 weeks 12 0% 0.0% -2.1% to 0.0%
26 weeks 12 0% 0.0% -2.1% to 0.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
How the count is built

Rules, references and limitations

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Elliott labels describe one rules-based interpretation; other valid counts may exist.
  • Cycle windows are estimates derived from observed rhythms, not scheduled turning dates.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2021-05-07 Confirmed High 137.04 11.3% 9 weeks
2021-09-24 Confirmed Low 116.95 -14.7% 20 weeks
2021-11-19 Confirmed High 129.40 10.6% 8 weeks
2021-12-10 Confirmed Low 118.15 -8.7% 3 weeks
2022-03-04 Confirmed High 152.86 29.4% 12 weeks
2026-01-02 Confirmed Low 129.06 -15.6% 200 weeks
2026-01-23 Confirmed High 304.00 135.5% 3 weeks
2026-02-06 Confirmed Low 267.88 -11.9% 2 weeks
2026-02-27 Confirmed High 297.52 11.1% 3 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 250.53 -15.8% 4 weeks
2026-04-17 Confirmed High 270.32 7.9% 3 weeks
2026-07-24 Forming Low 222.17 -17.8% 14 weeks