CNYA Elliott Wave Cycles

Investment view

What the current structure is saying

Based on weekly closing prices

Setup lifecycle

Triggered

The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation.

Now

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is falling stack.

Wrong

The underlying directional structure fails beyond 37.77; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.

Risk

The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.

The picture behind the setup

Weekly wave structure and decision levels

Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined marker is still forming. Decision lines show where the primary interpretation confirms or fails.

Close 30-week trend Fair Value Confirm Directional failure

Scenario comparison

How the valid counts compete

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest17%

Bearish A/B/C rebound may be completing17%

Possible Wave 3 advancing65%

Relative evidence among displayed counts—not forecast probabilities.

Pre-emptive downside check

Watch

32/100

Wave maturity0/25

Trend extension0/20

Range position0/15

Cycle rollover11/15

Multi-cycle risk15/15

Count instability6/10

Event proximity0/10

This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down.

Current read

The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 2.0% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.

1 constructive · 0 neutral · 6 weak

What would confirm the risk

Evidence of deterioration

A weekly close below 34.66, the nearest confirmed swing low.
Cycle pressure rolling from cresting into falling.
Relative strength and market activity losing neutral.

What would challenge it

Bearish structure weakens above

USD 37.77

Confirmed on 2026-06-19. Treat this as a structure reference, not an automatic trading level.

4-week return -6.1%

13-week return -3.4%

26-week return -0.9%

52-week return 18.2%

From 52-week high -9.3%

26-week volatility 16.0%

Wave structure

Price, trend and the active swing

The chart uses a 5.2% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Primary admissible count

Possible bearish Wave 2 crest

17% evidence weight

Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities.

Confirm 34.66 Invalidate 37.77 Count stability Low · 36/100

PassWave 2 protects the Wave 1 originOrigin 37.77; Wave 2 35.15.

GuidelineWave 2 retracement is proportionateRetraced 16% of Wave 1.

Strategic degreePossible Wave 3 advancing

Strategic degree uses a 8.3% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Primary degree uses a 5.2% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreePossible bearish Wave 2 crest

Tactical degree uses a 3.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing 1.4%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 34.66

Pivot from 2026-07-17

Nearest confirmed resistance 37.77

Pivot from 2026-06-19

30-week trend 35.86

Price is -2.0% from trend

Fair Value reference 28.85

Price is 21.8% from Fair Value

52-week range position 63%

28.98 low · 38.77 high

Cycle timing

Are the main rhythms moving together?

Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.

Pressure phaseFalling

Current medium-term pressure direction

Multi-cycle alignmentFalling Stack

0/100 constructive · 100/100 risk

Nearest trough window16 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Nearest crest window12 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Multi-cycle rhythm

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

Nominal / estimated10w / 11w

Current phaseFalling

Period evidence0/100

FLD confirmationCrossed Down

Since last trough6w

Future trough interval3–7w

Nominal / estimated20w / 22w

Current phaseFalling

Period evidence18/100

FLD confirmationCrossed Down

Since last trough6w

Future trough interval8–24w

Nominal / estimated40w / 48w

Current phaseCresting

Period evidence40/100

FLD confirmationCrossed Up

Since last trough30w

Future trough interval8–28w

Nominal / estimated80w / 62w

Current phaseCresting

Period evidence62/100

FLD confirmationCrossed Up

Since last trough12w

Future trough interval40–60w

Confirmation

Does price behaviour support the wave count?

Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.

86% confirmation alignment

Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

2.0% below trend

Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Falling

Cycle alignment

Several cycle lengths are weakening together.

Falling Stack

Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-5.7

Market activity

Participation is weak

-5.7

Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.6

30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+1.5

Combined reading Defensive

1 constructive, 6 weak and 0 neutral measures.

This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Risk and participation

How much movement sits behind the pattern?

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

52-week low28.98

52-week high38.77

Annualised volatility16.0%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range3.4%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-11.8%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume63%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

Market, peer and event context

Is the structure isolated—or supported by its environment?

Peer breadth tests whether the sector is moving with this security. Event and options context tests whether a catalyst could overwhelm otherwise valid technical structure.

Sector breadth

47% constructive

8 of 17 analysed peers have a bullish rule-valid primary count.

41% have improving cycle stacks Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.

Event collision

No near collision identified

Options: Bullish · 46/100 conviction · ±3.7% expected move

Stored options pressure is bullish with 46/100 conviction.

Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure.

Peer-state horizon	Independent samples	Positive	Median	Median excess vs SPY	10th–90th percentile
4 weeks	92	60%	2.0%	1.0%	-4.8% to 12.0%
13 weeks	55	67%	4.3%	0.6%	-12.1% to 15.5%
26 weeks	43	51%	2.9%	-4.6%	-19.0% to 17.5%

Historical context

What followed similar readings in this security?

Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.

66 similar weekly states

Median forward return

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w

1.0%

13w

4.4%

26w

7.7%

Horizon	Matches	Positive	Median	Range
4 weeks	66	53%	1.0%	-8.3% to 42.9%
13 weeks	66	61%	4.4%	-12.4% to 38.7%
26 weeks	62	71%	7.7%	-16.7% to 30.0%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history: 100/100
Indicator coverage: 100/100
Confirmed structure: 100/100

Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-07-24 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.

How the count is built

Rules, references and limitations

Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.2% adaptive reversal threshold.
The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.

Audit trail

Recent swing points

The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.

Date	Status	Type	Price	Move	Duration
2024-02-02	Confirmed	Low	22.00	-22.9%	27 weeks
2024-05-17	Confirmed	High	26.18	19.0%	15 weeks
2024-09-13	Confirmed	Low	22.80	-12.9%	17 weeks
2024-10-04	Confirmed	High	33.27	45.9%	3 weeks
2025-01-10	Confirmed	Low	25.68	-22.8%	14 weeks
2025-03-14	Confirmed	High	28.67	11.6%	9 weeks
2025-04-04	Confirmed	Low	25.96	-9.5%	3 weeks
2026-02-27	Confirmed	High	36.06	38.9%	47 weeks
2026-03-27	Confirmed	Low	33.64	-6.7%	4 weeks
2026-06-19	Confirmed	High	37.77	12.3%	12 weeks
2026-07-17	Confirmed	Low	34.66	-8.2%	4 weeks
2026-07-24	Forming	High	35.15	1.4%	1 weeks

CNYA Elliott Wave report