INDEXES · Market · Weekly research

^TWII Elliott Wave report

TWSE Capitalization Weighted Stock Index

Week ending 24 Jul 2026 Close TWD 43748.76 338 weekly observations
Current structure Five-wave advance mature
50/100 setup score 100/100 data quality
The setup score is a rules-based composite, not a probability or price forecast.
Investment view

What the current structure is saying

Based on weekly closing prices

Current read

The closing-price swing map is classified as five-wave advance mature. Price is 16.2% above its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.

4 constructive · 2 neutral · 1 weak

What would confirm it

Evidence to look for next

  • A weekly close through 46780.62, the nearest confirmed swing high.
  • Cycle pressure and the 20/40-week rhythms continuing to rise together.
  • Relative strength and market activity remaining above neutral.
What would challenge it

Bearish structure weakens above

TWD 46780.62

Confirmed on 2026-07-03. Treat this as a structure reference, not an automatic trading level.

4-week return -1.8%
13-week return 12.4%
26-week return 39.3%
52-week return 87.1%
From 52-week high -7.7%
26-week volatility 27.8%
Wave structure

Price, trend and the active swing

The chart uses a 6.8% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Closing-price swing map

Weekly close against the 30-week trend and long-term Fair Value reference.

Close 30-week trend Fair Value
Active swing 2.5%

1 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 42671.27

Pivot from 2026-07-17

Nearest confirmed resistance 46780.62

Pivot from 2026-07-03

30-week trend 37645.04

Price is 16.2% from trend

Fair Value reference 24585.60

Price is 77.9% from Fair Value

52-week range position 85%

22985.90 low · 47395.30 high

Cycle timing

Are the main rhythms moving together?

Cycle readings describe timing pressure. They do not set a price target or guarantee the next turning point.

Pressure phaseCresting

Current medium-term pressure direction

Multi-cycle alignmentMixed

50/100 constructive · 50/100 risk

Nearest trough window6 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Nearest crest window5 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Multi-cycle rhythm

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

Nominal cycle10w
Current phaseFalling
Reading-0.21
Recent amplitude5.55
Since last trough6w
Next trough window4w
Nominal cycle20w
Current phaseCresting
Reading1.50
Recent amplitude11.93
Since last trough6w
Next trough window6w
Nominal cycle40w
Current phaseRising
Reading3.00
Recent amplitude21.40
Since last trough15w
Next trough window15w
Nominal cycle80w
Current phaseRising
Reading2.80
Recent amplitude23.21
Since last trough53w
Next trough window27w
Confirmation

Does price behaviour support the wave count?

Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.

57% confirmation alignment
Trend

Price is holding above its 30-week trend.

16.2% above trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is not rising.

Cresting
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

The reading is neutral or unavailable.

+0.0
Market activity

Participation is supportive

+53.5
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is supportive

+0.4
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is positive

+58.0
Combined reading Constructive

4 constructive, 1 weak and 2 neutral measures.

This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Risk and participation

How much movement sits behind the pattern?

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

52-week low22985.90
52-week high47395.30
Annualised volatility27.8%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range5.1%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-6.5%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume76%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

Historical context

What followed similar readings in this security?

Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.

182 similar weekly states

Median forward return

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
2.5%
13w
5.4%
26w
6.4%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 181 65% 2.5% -10.2% to 19.5%
13 weeks 172 72% 5.4% -18.6% to 43.6%
26 weeks 159 77% 6.4% -23.8% to 69.2%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Evidence quality100/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
100/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
How the count is built

Rules, references and limitations

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 6.8% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Elliott labels describe one rules-based interpretation; other valid counts may exist.
  • Cycle windows are estimates derived from observed rhythms, not scheduled turning dates.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2022-07-01 Confirmed Low 14343.08 -22.1% 23 weeks
2022-08-19 Confirmed High 15408.78 7.4% 7 weeks
2022-10-28 Confirmed Low 12788.42 -17.0% 10 weeks
2024-07-12 Confirmed High 23916.93 87.0% 88 weeks
2024-09-06 Confirmed Low 21435.19 -10.4% 8 weeks
2025-02-21 Confirmed High 23730.25 10.7% 23 weeks
2025-04-18 Confirmed Low 19395.03 -18.3% 8 weeks
2026-02-27 Confirmed High 35414.49 82.6% 44 weeks
2026-04-03 Confirmed Low 32572.43 -8.0% 5 weeks
2026-07-03 Confirmed High 46780.62 43.6% 13 weeks
2026-07-17 Confirmed Low 42671.27 -8.8% 2 weeks
2026-07-24 Forming High 43748.76 2.5% 1 weeks