Current read
The closing-price swing map is classified as hurst crest risk. Price is 0.3% below its 30-week trend. 4 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.
4 constructive · 0 neutral · 3 weak
AMS · Market · Weekly research
V20D Elliott Wave report
Vanguard LifeStrategy 20% Equity UCITS ETF (EUR) Distributing
Current structure
Hurst crest risk
57/100 setup score
83/100 data quality
The setup score is a rules-based composite, not a probability or price forecast.
Investment view
Based on weekly closing prices
What the current structure is saying
Evidence to look for next
- A new closing-price high that holds above the 30-week trend.
- Cycle pressure and the 20/40-week rhythms continuing to rise together.
- Relative strength and market activity remaining above neutral.
Bearish structure weakens above
No confirmed opposing pivot is available. Use the trend and Fair Value references below.
4-week return
-1.0%
13-week return
0.7%
26-week return
-0.5%
52-week return
3.6%
From 52-week high
-1.5%
26-week volatility
5.3%
Wave structure
Price, trend and the active swing
The chart uses a 5.0% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.
Closing-price swing map
Weekly close against the 30-week trend and long-term Fair Value reference.
Close
30-week trend
Fair Value
283 weeks · Forming
No lower pivot in the current window
Price is above prior confirmed highs
Price is -0.3% from trend
Price is 5.1% from Fair Value
21.55 low · 22.66 high
Cycle timing
Are the main rhythms moving together?
Cycle readings describe timing pressure. They do not set a price target or guarantee the next turning point.
Current medium-term pressure direction
28/100 constructive · 100/100 risk
Timing estimate, not a dated forecast
Timing estimate, not a dated forecast
Cycle pressure
Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.
Multi-cycle rhythm
The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.
Nominal cycle10w
Current phaseFalling
Reading-0.01
Recent amplitude0.63
Since last trough6w
Next trough window4w
Nominal cycle20w
Current phaseCresting
Reading0.43
Recent amplitude0.85
Since last trough6w
Next trough window6w
Nominal cycle40w
Current phaseRising
Reading0.29
Recent amplitude2.03
Since last trough6w
Next trough window6w
Nominal cycle80w
Current phaseCresting
Reading0.67
Recent amplitude3.21
Since last trough3w
Next trough window3w
Confirmation
57% confirmation alignment
Does price behaviour support the wave count?
Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.
Trend
0.3% below trend
Price remains below its 30-week trend.
Cycle pressure
Rising
The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.
Cycle alignment
Crest Cluster
Several cycle lengths are weakening together.
Relative strength
-9.8
Underperforming its benchmark
Market activity
+18.2
Participation is supportive
Market dynamics
+0.3
Price and volume behaviour is supportive
30-week momentum
+0.2
Medium-term momentum is positive
4 constructive, 3 weak and 0 neutral measures.
This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.Market activity
Whether participation is supporting the move.
Relative strength
Performance against the market benchmark.
30-week momentum
The pace of the medium-term price move.
Market dynamics
A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.
Risk and participation
How much movement sits behind the pattern?
Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.
52-week low21.55
52-week high22.66
Based on the latest 26 weekly returns
Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks
From the highest close in the stored record
Of its trailing 20-week average
Drawdown history
Distance below the highest prior weekly close.
Realised volatility
Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.
Relative volume
Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.
Historical context
52 similar weekly states
What followed similar readings in this security?
Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.
Median forward return
Median outcome after each matching historical week.
| Horizon | Matches | Positive | Median | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 weeks | 51 | 77% | 0.7% | -2.6% to 3.0% |
| 13 weeks | 49 | 86% | 1.3% | -1.4% to 3.5% |
| 26 weeks | 45 | 87% | 2.4% | -3.7% to 5.2% |
Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.
Evidence quality83/100
This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.
- Weekly history
- 100/100
- Indicator coverage
- 100/100
- Confirmed structure
- 17/100
Rules, references and limitations
- Swing points use weekly closes and a 5.0% adaptive reversal threshold.
- The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
- Elliott labels describe one rules-based interpretation; other valid counts may exist.
- Cycle windows are estimates derived from observed rhythms, not scheduled turning dates.
Audit trail
Recent swing points
The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.
| Date | Status | Type | Price | Move | Duration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-02-19 | Confirmed | Low | 21.92 | - | 0 weeks |
| 2026-07-24 | Forming | High | 22.32 | 1.8% | 283 weeks |