CBOE · Market · Weekly research

MAGX Elliott Wave report

ROUNDHILL DAILY 2X LONG MAGNIFICENT SEVEN ETF

Week ending 24 Jul 2026 Close USD 48.77 126 weekly observations
Current structure A/B/C reset may be completing
39/100 setup score 82/100 data quality
The setup score is a rules-based composite, not a probability or price forecast.
Investment view

What the current structure is saying

Based on weekly closing prices
Setup lifecycle

Watching

The lifecycle separates an interesting setup from price confirmation, an active thesis, maturity and invalidation.

Now

A/B/C reset may be completing is the highest-ranked admissible primary count; cycle status is mixed.

Next

A weekly close through 56.20, supported by an FLD cross and improving relative strength.

Wrong

The underlying directional structure fails beyond 48.77; a forming endpoint can extend before that happens.

Risk

The active endpoint can move until its reversal is confirmed; earnings, gaps and volatility can jump through technical levels.

The picture behind the setup

Weekly wave structure and decision levels

Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined marker is still forming. Decision lines show where the primary interpretation confirms or fails.

Close 30-week trend Fair Value Confirm Directional failure
Scenario comparison

How the valid counts compete

A/B/C reset may be completing37%
Possible Wave 2 trough26%
A/B/C reset may be completing37%
Relative evidence among displayed counts—not forecast probabilities.
Pre-emptive downside check

Contained

18/100
Wave maturity0/25
Trend extension0/20
Range position0/15
Cycle rollover0/15
Multi-cycle risk8/15
Count instability10/10
Event proximity0/10

This is a pre-emptive vulnerability checklist, not a probability of decline. It rises when mature wave structure, overextension, cycle rollover, count instability and event risk cluster before price breaks down.

Current read

The closing-price swing map is classified as a/b/c reset may be completing. Price is 7.3% below its 30-week trend. 1 of 7 available confirmation measures are constructive.

1 constructive · 1 neutral · 5 weak

What would confirm it

Evidence to look for next

  • A weekly close through 56.20, the nearest confirmed swing high.
  • Cycle pressure and the 20/40-week rhythms continuing to rise together.
  • Relative strength and market activity remaining above neutral.
What would challenge it

Bullish structure weakens below

USD 46.94

Confirmed on 2026-06-26. Treat this as a structure reference, not an automatic trading level.

4-week return 3.9%
13-week return -13.0%
26-week return -13.1%
52-week return 8.8%
From 52-week high -23.0%
26-week volatility 54.7%
Wave structure

Price, trend and the active swing

The chart uses a 13.7% closing-price reversal threshold. Filled markers are confirmed pivots; the outlined final marker is still forming.

Primary admissible count

A/B/C reset may be completing

37% evidence weight

Counts must pass hard Elliott geometry rules. Fibonacci relationships, alternation and cycle evidence rank admissible interpretations; evidence weights compare scenarios and are not forecast probabilities.

Confirm 56.20 Invalidate 48.77 Count stability Low · 0/100
PassWave B protects the correction originOrigin 61.84; Wave B 56.20.
PassWave C progresses beyond Wave AA length 14.90; C length 7.43.
GuidelineWave C is proportionate to Wave AWave C is 0.50× Wave A.
Strategic degreeNo valid count

Strategic degree uses a 22.0% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Primary degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Primary degree uses a 13.7% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Tactical degreeA/B/C reset may be completing

Tactical degree uses a 9.6% weekly closing-price reversal threshold.

Active swing -13.2%

2 weeks · Forming

Nearest confirmed support 46.94

Pivot from 2026-06-26

Nearest confirmed resistance 56.20

Pivot from 2026-07-10

30-week trend 52.60

Price is -7.3% from trend

Fair Value reference 42.48

Price is 14.8% from Fair Value

52-week range position 41%

38.72 low · 63.33 high

Cycle timing

Are the main rhythms moving together?

Nominal cycles are starting bands, not fixed clocks. Each period adapts to the strongest nearby repeat in detrended weekly prices; projected turns are future intervals and require price confirmation.

Pressure phaseRising

Current medium-term pressure direction

Multi-cycle alignmentMixed

50/100 constructive · 50/100 risk

Nearest trough window22 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Nearest crest window17 weeks

Timing estimate, not a dated forecast

Cycle pressure

Above zero is positive pressure; direction matters more than the absolute number.

Multi-cycle rhythm

The thick line is the blended reading; thinner lines show 20, 40 and 80-week components.

Nominal / estimated10w / 8w
Current phaseTroughing
Period evidence0/100
FLD confirmationCrossed Down
Since last trough4w
Future trough interval2–6w
Nominal / estimated20w / 25w
Current phaseRising
Period evidence0/100
FLD confirmationCrossed Down
Since last trough3w
Future trough interval14–30w
Nominal / estimated40w / 50w
Current phaseFalling
Period evidence79/100
FLD confirmationCrossed Down
Since last trough14w
Future trough interval31–41w
Nominal / estimated80w / 80w
Current phaseCresting
Period evidence0/100
FLD confirmationCrossed Down
Since last trough12w
Future trough interval49–87w
Confirmation

Does price behaviour support the wave count?

Each measure answers a different question. Agreement across several measures is more useful than one strong reading in isolation.

71% confirmation alignment
Trend

Price remains below its 30-week trend.

7.3% below trend
Cycle pressure

The medium-term pressure curve is turning higher.

Rising
Cycle alignment

Cycle lengths are not moving in one clear direction.

Mixed
Relative strength

Underperforming its benchmark

-14.6
Market activity

Participation is weak

-9.1
Market dynamics

Price and volume behaviour is weak

-0.2
30-week momentum

Medium-term momentum is negative

-18.0
Combined reading Defensive

1 constructive, 5 weak and 1 neutral measures.

This is a count of rules-based evidence, not a recommendation.

Market activity

Whether participation is supporting the move.

Relative strength

Performance against the market benchmark.

30-week momentum

The pace of the medium-term price move.

Market dynamics

A separate scale prevents this lower-range measure being hidden by relative strength.

Risk and participation

How much movement sits behind the pattern?

Wave structure is easier to judge when drawdown, volatility and participation are visible beside it.

52-week low38.72
52-week high63.33
Annualised volatility54.7%

Based on the latest 26 weekly returns

Average weekly range10.2%

Average high-to-low range over 13 weeks

Current drawdown-21.1%

From the highest close in the stored record

Latest volume76%

Of its trailing 20-week average

Drawdown history

Distance below the highest prior weekly close.

Realised volatility

Annualised variability of the latest 26 weekly returns.

Relative volume

Weekly volume as a percentage of its 20-week average.

Market, peer and event context

Is the structure isolated—or supported by its environment?

Peer breadth tests whether the sector is moving with this security. Event and options context tests whether a catalyst could overwhelm otherwise valid technical structure.

Sector breadth

47% constructive

8 of 17 analysed peers have a bullish rule-valid primary count.

41% have improving cycle stacks Breadth shows whether peers share the structure. Cohort outcomes use non-overlapping, point-in-time trend and momentum states from the same sector and report benchmark excess return when matching benchmark bars exist; they are context, not a backtest of the Elliott count.
Event collision

Elevated invalidation risk

Options: Mixed · 24/100 conviction · ±12.0% expected move

The options-implied move is large enough to cross the Elliott invalidation level in one event-sized move.

Event and positioning context tests whether a scheduled catalyst or the options-implied move could overwhelm the technical structure.
Peer-state horizonIndependent samplesPositiveMedianMedian excess vs SPY10th–90th percentile
4 weeks21954%0.4%-0.7%-6.7% to 9.0%
13 weeks9156%1.0%-1.4%-11.1% to 20.0%
26 weeks5452%0.4%-7.7%-11.2% to 18.3%
Historical context

What followed similar readings in this security?

Matches compare trend, cycle direction, momentum, relative strength and market dynamics using only information available at each historical week.

12 similar weekly states

Median forward return

Median outcome after each matching historical week.

4w
18.4%
13w
31.4%
26w
53.8%
HorizonMatchesPositiveMedianRange
4 weeks 12 100% 18.4% 2.9% to 42.6%
13 weeks 12 100% 31.4% 13.1% to 50.5%
26 weeks 7 100% 53.8% 45.8% to 87.7%

Overlapping historical matches are descriptive context, not independent observations or a forecast.

Evidence quality82/100

This measures usable history, indicator coverage and confirmed swing points. It does not measure the chance of the scenario succeeding.

Weekly history
48/100
Indicator coverage
100/100
Confirmed structure
100/100
Model ewc-2.1.0 · as of 2026-07-24 · only the final active pivot is provisional; confirmed pivots are retained.
How the count is built

Rules, references and limitations

  • Swing points use weekly closes and a 13.7% adaptive reversal threshold.
  • The final swing is provisional until the reversal threshold is met.
  • Candidate counts must pass the Wave 2 origin, Wave 3 progression/length and Wave 4 overlap rules when those waves are present.
  • Fibonacci proportions and alternation rank valid candidates but never rescue a hard-rule failure.
  • Primary and alternate evidence weights compare admissible counts; they are not probabilities.
  • Nominal Hurst periods adapt to observed weekly rhythm. Future windows include measured timing uncertainty and require FLD or price confirmation.
Audit trail

Recent swing points

The exact points used to construct the visible wave map.

DateStatusTypePriceMoveDuration
2024-07-05 Confirmed High 39.04 73.6% 11 weeks
2024-08-09 Confirmed Low 28.75 -26.3% 5 weeks
2024-08-23 Confirmed High 32.84 14.2% 2 weeks
2024-09-06 Confirmed Low 28.06 -14.6% 2 weeks
2024-12-13 Confirmed High 48.59 73.2% 14 weeks
2025-04-04 Confirmed Low 25.02 -48.5% 16 weeks
2025-10-31 Confirmed High 59.85 139.2% 30 weeks
2026-03-27 Confirmed Low 39.30 -34.3% 21 weeks
2026-05-29 Confirmed High 61.84 57.4% 9 weeks
2026-06-26 Confirmed Low 46.94 -24.1% 4 weeks
2026-07-10 Confirmed High 56.20 19.7% 2 weeks
2026-07-24 Forming Low 48.77 -13.2% 2 weeks