Pattern Intelligence · SAO

ASML34 quant read

The pattern is not clean enough for a strong directional call. The chart needs confirmation.

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Next week 46.5%

Unclear · avg analogue +0.70%

Low conviction

Next 4 weeks 54.6%

Unclear · avg analogue +2.48%

Low conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence supports the read

5 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 169.18
Trend Line: 138.22
Fair value: 89.20

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: wait for confirmation A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Supportive

Price vs Trend Line: +22.40%
Price vs Fair Value: +89.66%
Relative Strength: +0.35
Market Activity: +0.88
Price Cycle: +0.90

Headwinds

No core headwind block is clearly negative.

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -2.72%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue +1.95%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +10.75%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +22.40%

Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.

Price vs Fair Value +89.66%

Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.

Market Dynamics +0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength +0.35

The stock is showing relative leadership.

Market Activity +0.88

This component is supportive.

Price Cycle +0.90

This component is supportive.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
9104 JPX	2024-02-23	0.8657	lower	-12.33%
2216 JPX	2023-05-19	0.8484	higher	+15.55%
BBVA NYSE	2026-01-30	0.8441	lower	-9.01%
FII PAR	2026-03-13	0.8393	higher	+18.29%
002534 SHZ	2021-09-03	0.8341	higher	+14.27%
SN NYSE	2024-11-01	0.8339	higher	+12.83%
GOOC VIE	2026-05-29	0.8329	lower	-8.16%
2216 JPX	2025-06-20	0.8317	higher	+4.24%
6454 JPX	2025-08-08	0.8284	higher	+1.06%
LLY MEX	2024-03-08	0.827	lower	-0.22%
DASH NASDAQ	2025-07-11	0.8243	higher	+7.80%
7868 JPX	2023-05-05	0.8243	lower	-9.42%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure 0.97266
Volume pressure 0.85135
Price vs Fair Value 0.83418
Price Cycle 0.82768

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.