Pattern Intelligence · IST

SMRTG quant read

The pattern is not clean enough for a strong directional call. The chart needs confirmation.

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Next week 40.2%

Unclear · avg analogue +0.01%

Low conviction

Next 4 weeks 38.3%

Unclear · avg analogue +1.15%

Moderate conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence is mixed

The current setup has both supportive and challenging components.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 11.11
Trend Line: 8.98
Fair value: 14.30

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: wait for confirmation A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Supportive

Price vs Trend Line: +23.76%
Market Activity: +0.32

Headwinds

Price vs Fair Value: -22.32%
Price Cycle: -0.22

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -9.24%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -5.19%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +9.70%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +23.76%

Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.

Price vs Fair Value -22.32%

Price is trading below Fair Value, which can create recovery potential if pressure improves.

Market Dynamics +0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength +0.03

Relative strength is not giving a clear edge.

Market Activity +0.32

This component is supportive.

Price Cycle -0.22

This component is a drag.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
605069 SHH	2024-12-27	0.7541	lower	-2.28%
TRZ TOR	2025-08-08	0.7036	higher	+12.50%
600641 SHH	2024-12-27	0.7008	lower	-0.13%
KOS NYSE	2026-04-24	0.6969	higher	+7.83%
ARIHANTCAP NSI	2023-10-06	0.6918	lower	-8.93%
002918 SHZ	2025-10-17	0.6899	lower	-8.56%
MACY VIE	2021-01-22	0.6874	higher	+20.19%
000608 SHZ	2024-11-29	0.6776	lower	-6.43%
ALNG OSL	2021-02-12	0.6775	lower	-13.49%
603396 SHH	2025-09-26	0.6725	lower	-0.72%
603359 SHH	2024-12-27	0.6606	lower	-18.28%
DBL NSI	2023-07-28	0.6567	higher	+17.61%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure -4.14936
Trend Signal 0.57698
Volume pressure 0.50196
Price Cycle -0.29213

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.