Pattern Intelligence · HKG

2191 quant read

The pattern is not clean enough for a strong directional call. The chart needs confirmation.

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Next week 36.2%

Unclear · avg analogue +0.29%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 32.5%

Unclear · avg analogue +3.63%

Moderate conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence is mixed

The current setup has both supportive and challenging components.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 2.54
Trend Line: 2.61
Fair value: 2.42

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: wait for confirmation A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Supportive

No core support block is clearly positive.

Headwinds

Market Activity: -0.16

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -3.45%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue 0.00%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +0.87%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line -2.70%

Price is close to trend, so direction still needs confirmation.

Price vs Fair Value +4.84%

Price is close to Fair Value.

Market Dynamics -0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength +0.02

Relative strength is not giving a clear edge.

Market Activity -0.16

This component is a drag.

Price Cycle +0.05

This component is neutral.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
HI91 GER	2024-11-15	0.6438	flat	0.00%
XTC TOR	2022-07-29	0.6326	lower	-1.26%
WB2 GER	2024-11-22	0.6256	flat	0.00%
INCY MEX	2023-09-22	0.6247	flat	0.00%
ECJ GER	2024-02-02	0.6217	flat	0.00%
USFD MEX	2022-10-21	0.6203	flat	0.00%
RGO GER	2024-12-13	0.606	flat	0.00%
MWA NYSE	2022-05-20	0.6059	lower	-4.15%
CTRE NYSE	2022-05-20	0.6045	higher	+1.16%
6188 HKG	2023-09-29	0.6044	lower	-48.14%
KSTUR IST	2021-10-22	0.6018	flat	0.00%
A50 SES	2022-06-17	0.601	lower	-2.50%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Volume pressure -1.2677
Sector structure -1.15558
Trend Signal -0.42302
Close location 0.31406

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.