Pattern Intelligence · SET

CRD quant read

The nearest historical setups point to downside risk rather than follow-through strength.

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Next week 39.9%

Unclear · avg analogue +1.54%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 31.3%

Likely lower · avg analogue -1.95%

Moderate conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence supports the read

5 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

Evidence improves only if price stabilises and relative strength stops lagging.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 0.58
Trend Line: 0.36
Fair value: 0.42

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: downside risk Evidence improves only if price stabilises and relative strength stops lagging.

Supportive

Price vs Trend Line: +61.86%
Price vs Fair Value: +37.49%
Relative Strength: +0.34
Market Activity: +0.96
Price Cycle: +0.37

Headwinds

No core headwind block is clearly negative.

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -11.13%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -1.67%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +5.49%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +61.86%

Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.

Price vs Fair Value +37.49%

Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.

Market Dynamics +0.02

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength +0.34

The stock is showing relative leadership.

Market Activity +0.96

This component is supportive.

Price Cycle +0.37

This component is supportive.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
NYE MCE	2024-09-27	0.7076	lower	-10.00%
NXTC NASDAQ	2024-03-29	0.6772	lower	-39.46%
TSEC STO	2025-08-15	0.6708	lower	-11.50%
PL SET	2025-09-19	0.6371	lower	-3.76%
NAGE NASDAQ	2024-03-29	0.6339	lower	-1.15%
SIAM SET	2025-10-03	0.6262	lower	-7.95%
STC TOR	2024-04-05	0.6236	lower	-11.59%
JBLU NASDAQ	2024-03-15	0.6218	lower	-4.12%
300057 SHZ	2021-08-06	0.6189	lower	-1.79%
300668 SHZ	2024-11-08	0.6179	higher	+7.26%
MULT GER	2023-02-03	0.6168	higher	+9.54%
5247 KLS	2023-12-15	0.6165	lower	-0.73%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Volume pressure 1.76646
Sector structure 1.14358
Market Activity 0.87262
Price vs Trend Line 0.59869

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.