Pattern Intelligence · PAR

ALDLS quant read

The nearest historical setups point to downside risk rather than follow-through strength.

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Next week 33.1%

Likely lower · avg analogue -0.79%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 32.1%

Likely lower · avg analogue -3.87%

Moderate conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence is mixed

The current setup has both supportive and challenging components.

Quant agreement Probabilities agree

Evidence improves only if price stabilises and relative strength stops lagging.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 10.50
Trend Line: 10.32
Fair value: 11.64

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: downside risk Evidence improves only if price stabilises and relative strength stops lagging.

Supportive

Market Activity: +0.20

Headwinds

Relative Strength: -0.04
Price Cycle: -0.10

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -4.42%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -0.99%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +1.33%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +1.78%

Price is close to trend, so direction still needs confirmation.

Price vs Fair Value -9.78%

Price is close to Fair Value.

Market Dynamics +0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.04

The stock is lagging relative strength.

Market Activity +0.20

This component is supportive.

Price Cycle -0.10

This component is a drag.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
ALVAL PAR	2024-05-24	0.6821	lower	-65.17%
ALGN VIE	2024-02-23	0.6602	higher	+0.83%
SYENS BRU	2024-11-15	0.6499	higher	+1.82%
300195 SHZ	2021-05-14	0.6437	lower	-0.33%
2060 JPX	2021-09-24	0.6427	lower	-2.57%
RPL ASX	2023-09-08	0.636	lower	-3.08%
7636 JPX	2024-04-05	0.6326	lower	-1.55%
EKAD JKT	2024-09-06	0.6317	lower	-1.71%
0302 HKG	2024-11-15	0.6313	higher	+7.50%
SKC ASX	2024-09-20	0.6274	lower	-1.18%
002481 SHZ	2023-09-15	0.6268	lower	-0.23%
AF PAR	2021-11-05	0.6258	lower	-20.00%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure -1.88847
Volume pressure -0.66337
Trend Signal -0.42302
Next-week expectancy -0.31036

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.