Pattern Intelligence · SAO

R1LC34 quant read

The nearest historical setups point to downside risk rather than follow-through strength.

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Next week 23.0%

Likely lower · avg analogue -1.90%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 42.4%

Unclear · avg analogue +0.34%

Low conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence supports the read

5 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

Evidence improves only if price stabilises and relative strength stops lagging.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 1,039.58
Trend Line: 933.66
Fair value: 630.87

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: downside risk Evidence improves only if price stabilises and relative strength stops lagging.

Supportive

Price vs Trend Line: +11.34%
Price vs Fair Value: +64.78%
Relative Strength: +0.06
Market Activity: +0.51
Price Cycle: +0.65

Headwinds

No core headwind block is clearly negative.

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -5.69%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -0.16%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +6.23%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +11.34%

Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.

Price vs Fair Value +64.78%

Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.

Market Dynamics +0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength +0.06

The stock is showing relative leadership.

Market Activity +0.51

This component is supportive.

Price Cycle +0.65

This component is supportive.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
7241 KLS	2022-07-01	0.6459	lower	-8.57%
NCL SET	2022-08-19	0.6355	lower	-9.47%
FLSP BRU	2023-09-01	0.6176	flat	0.00%
2633 HKG	2026-03-27	0.6128	lower	-7.32%
BQD SES	2024-08-30	0.612	lower	-6.67%
MLIML PAR	2024-06-14	0.6078	higher	+16.59%
GLENN MEX	2022-11-11	0.6077	higher	+11.33%
3469 JPX	2025-01-10	0.6025	higher	+5.00%
1576 HKG	2022-08-26	0.6019	lower	-3.72%
TKT SET	2022-03-04	0.6004	lower	-2.26%
7239 KLS	2022-10-14	0.6004	flat	0.00%
S56 SES	2023-09-29	0.5939	lower	-10.00%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Volume pressure -2.63769
Price vs Fair Value 0.5854
Price Cycle 0.57889
Trend Signal -0.42302

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.