Pattern Intelligence · MCE

ITX quant read

The nearest historical setups point to downside risk rather than follow-through strength.

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Next week 37.0%

Likely lower · avg analogue -3.73%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 37.3%

Likely lower · avg analogue -3.34%

Moderate conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence supports the read

3 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.

Quant agreement Probabilities agree

Evidence improves only if price stabilises and relative strength stops lagging.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 54.96
Trend Line: 53.59
Fair value: 44.30

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: downside risk Evidence improves only if price stabilises and relative strength stops lagging.

Supportive

Price vs Fair Value: +24.05%
Market Activity: +0.45
Price Cycle: +0.24

Headwinds

Relative Strength: -0.04

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -4.82%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue -2.46%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +2.54%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +2.55%

Price is close to trend, so direction still needs confirmation.

Price vs Fair Value +24.05%

Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.

Market Dynamics +0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.04

The stock is lagging relative strength.

Market Activity +0.45

This component is supportive.

Price Cycle +0.24

This component is supportive.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
BS6 SES	2024-02-23	0.6698	higher	+12.05%
SSNC NASDAQ	2025-08-01	0.6495	higher	+5.26%
000100 KSC	2021-06-25	0.6362	lower	-2.53%
2175 JPX	2022-03-25	0.6333	lower	-7.28%
DTC JNB	2026-05-29	0.6319	lower	-98.75%
GAW LSE	2023-12-22	0.6295	lower	-2.39%
IDIP PAR	2024-02-02	0.6285	higher	+0.90%
SMR ASX	2024-06-14	0.6241	higher	+18.51%
GOOG NASDAQ	2025-06-13	0.6207	higher	+3.09%
FIBIH TLV	2023-02-03	0.6174	lower	-4.71%
365550 KSC	2025-02-28	0.6169	lower	-0.83%
TIMB NYSE	2022-08-26	0.6154	lower	-0.55%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Trend Signal -0.42302
Market Activity 0.3558
Close location -0.23189
Price vs Fair Value 0.17804

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.