Pattern Intelligence · PAR

IPN quant read

The nearest historical setups point to a better-than-even chance of higher prices across the tested horizon set.

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Next week 69.8%

Likely higher · avg analogue +0.87%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 59.7%

Unclear · avg analogue +1.58%

Low conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence supports the read

5 of the core evidence blocks are supportive.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

Confirmation from price holding above trend and relative strength staying firm.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 162.70
Trend Line: 151.94
Fair value: 118.02

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: upside follow-through Confirmation from price holding above trend and relative strength staying firm.

Supportive

Price vs Trend Line: +7.08%
Price vs Fair Value: +37.86%
Relative Strength: +0.15
Market Activity: +0.31
Price Cycle: +0.38

Headwinds

No core headwind block is clearly negative.

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -2.09%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue +1.77%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +7.09%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line +7.08%

Price is comfortably above its medium-term trend.

Price vs Fair Value +37.86%

Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.

Market Dynamics -0.00

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength +0.15

The stock is showing relative leadership.

Market Activity +0.31

This component is supportive.

Price Cycle +0.38

This component is supportive.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
2607 JPX	2024-11-29	0.8408	higher	+0.48%
MPE LSE	2025-11-28	0.8395	lower	-7.75%
BHMG LSE	2022-10-28	0.8217	lower	-1.59%
9381 JPX	2022-05-13	0.8192	lower	-3.05%
8101 JPX	2022-11-18	0.8166	higher	+1.46%
BCGE EBS	2024-07-26	0.8149	lower	-4.51%
3382 JPX	2022-07-01	0.8141	higher	+3.37%
CIB NYSE	2025-06-27	0.8135	lower	-2.20%
EVS BRU	2024-02-09	0.8115	higher	+5.41%
6875 JPX	2023-11-10	0.8093	higher	+7.09%
FILA MIL	2025-03-14	0.8073	higher	+2.00%
BKW EBS	2023-08-18	0.8051	higher	+7.26%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure -2.0011
Trend Signal 0.57698
Close location -0.3709
Price vs Fair Value 0.31616

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.