Pattern Intelligence · JPX

1430 quant read

The nearest historical setups point to a better-than-even chance of higher prices across the tested horizon set.

Open full chart Universe dashboard

Next week 56.8%

Unclear · avg analogue +0.69%

Low conviction

Next 4 weeks 64.1%

Likely higher · avg analogue +1.82%

Moderate conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence is mixed

The current setup has both supportive and challenging components.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

Confirmation from price holding above trend and relative strength staying firm.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 979.00
Trend Line: 986.10
Fair value: 804.42

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: upside follow-through Confirmation from price holding above trend and relative strength staying firm.

Supportive

Price vs Fair Value: +21.70%
Price Cycle: +0.22

Headwinds

Relative Strength: -0.21
Market Activity: -0.13

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -1.03%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue +1.34%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +4.46%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line -0.72%

Price is close to trend, so direction still needs confirmation.

Price vs Fair Value +21.70%

Price is stretched above the current Fair Value estimate.

Market Dynamics -0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.21

The stock is lagging relative strength.

Market Activity -0.13

This component is a drag.

Price Cycle +0.22

This component is supportive.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
ALC EBS	2022-03-18	0.755	higher	+1.47%
AN NYSE	2023-11-24	0.7535	higher	+11.72%
9682 JPX	2025-12-12	0.7521	higher	+4.14%
7823 JPX	2024-03-29	0.7314	lower	-2.83%
7921 JPX	2026-03-27	0.7309	lower	-10.42%
JYSK CPH	2024-08-30	0.7239	lower	-2.12%
FHI NYSE	2023-07-14	0.7204	lower	-5.15%
STWD NYSE	2025-12-05	0.7174	higher	+3.68%
IBM NYSE	2024-06-21	0.7154	higher	+6.26%
9616 JPX	2024-01-19	0.7135	higher	+4.57%
SEIC NASDAQ	2025-12-12	0.7122	higher	+5.19%
5802 JPX	2025-05-09	0.7095	higher	+21.75%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Next-week expectancy 0.68316
Sector structure 0.49426
Trend Signal -0.42302
Volume pressure -0.41893

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.