Pattern Intelligence · SHZ

002761 quant read

The pattern is not clean enough for a strong directional call. The chart needs confirmation.

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Next week 49.9%

Unclear · avg analogue +1.29%

Low conviction

Next 4 weeks 52.7%

Unclear · avg analogue +0.76%

Low conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence challenges the read

5 of the core evidence blocks are acting as headwinds.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 6.94
Trend Line: 8.14
Fair value: 9.43

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: wait for confirmation A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Supportive

No core support block is clearly positive.

Headwinds

Price vs Trend Line: -14.78%
Price vs Fair Value: -26.40%
Relative Strength: -0.28
Market Activity: -0.43
Price Cycle: -0.26

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -6.24%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue +1.68%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +6.10%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line -14.78%

Price is below trend, which keeps pressure on the setup.

Price vs Fair Value -26.40%

Price is trading below Fair Value, which can create recovery potential if pressure improves.

Market Dynamics -0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.28

The stock is lagging relative strength.

Market Activity -0.43

This component is a drag.

Price Cycle -0.26

This component is a drag.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
GILT TLV	2024-08-02	0.6938	lower	-1.63%
301239 SHZ	2026-03-20	0.6918	higher	+8.16%
DGL NZE	2025-05-23	0.6865	flat	0.00%
AKSHOPTFBR NSI	2026-01-02	0.6854	lower	-17.41%
LHA VIE	2024-09-06	0.684	higher	+6.17%
Z77 SES	2020-11-13	0.6807	lower	-0.85%
298690 KSC	2024-09-06	0.6787	lower	-1.04%
6680 HKG	2024-08-09	0.675	lower	-3.68%
6740 JPX	2021-11-05	0.6714	higher	+5.88%
0321 HKG	2025-05-09	0.6707	higher	+3.33%
WEST3 SAO	2024-12-27	0.6696	lower	-9.00%
4583 JPX	2025-12-19	0.6682	higher	+11.21%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure -5.05664
Market Activity -0.51832
Trend Signal -0.42302
Price Cycle -0.33297

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.