Pattern Intelligence · JKT

SMRA quant read

The pattern is not clean enough for a strong directional call. The chart needs confirmation.

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Next week 33.3%

Likely lower · avg analogue -2.43%

Moderate conviction

Next 4 weeks 43.6%

Unclear · avg analogue +2.60%

Low conviction

Live chart evidence Chart evidence challenges the read

4 of the core evidence blocks are acting as headwinds.

Quant agreement Evidence not decisive

A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Current weekly tape

Price, trend line, and fair value

Use this to anchor the probability read to the actual chart. A bearish analogue read is more serious when price is below trend or stretched above fair value.

Close: 282.00
Trend Line: 338.48
Fair value: 471.20

Hover chart for weekly context.

Practical insights

What this is saying

Pattern Lab compares today’s setup with resolved historical setups. The useful question is not “does it look similar?” but “when it looked similar before, did price actually go higher?”

Bias: wait for confirmation A decisive weekly close that pulls the 1-week and 4-week evidence into agreement.

Supportive

No core support block is clearly positive.

Headwinds

Price vs Trend Line: -16.69%
Price vs Fair Value: -40.15%
Market Activity: -0.46
Price Cycle: -0.40

Signal stack

What changed underneath price?

Each signal is standardized against its own recent history, so the lines show whether the current reading is unusually strong or weak for this stock.

Hover for standardized signal values.

Historical memory

Nearest 4-week analogue returns

Bars are the forward 4-week returns from the closest resolved examples, ordered by similarity. Red clustering is the warning sign.

Hover for analogue return and similarity rank.

Outcome frame

Range of outcomes from the nearest 4-week analogues

This is not a forecast range. It is the historical distribution of similar setups, translated into bear/base/bull context.

Bear case -6.32%

What weaker historical analogues tended to deliver.

Base analogue +0.32%

The middle outcome from the nearest resolved examples.

Bull case +9.20%

What stronger historical analogues tended to deliver.

Evidence stack

Why the model sees this setup

These are the current conditions feeding the analogue read. The point is not the number alone; it is whether the evidence agrees with the probability read.

Price vs Trend Line -16.69%

Price is below trend, which keeps pressure on the setup.

Price vs Fair Value -40.15%

Price is trading below Fair Value, which can create recovery potential if pressure improves.

Market Dynamics -0.01

Market Dynamics are neutral.

Relative Strength -0.01

Relative strength is not giving a clear edge.

Market Activity -0.46

This component is a drag.

Price Cycle -0.40

This component is a drag.

Historical rhymes

Closest resolved setups

The table keeps the model honest: these are the actual examples behind the headline odds.

Ticker	Week	Similarity	Outcome	4W return
002616 SHZ	2022-06-03	0.766	higher	+3.21%
0978 HKG	2024-01-26	0.7382	higher	+3.39%
SPCG SET	2024-08-02	0.7333	higher	+6.92%
002081 SHZ	2024-03-01	0.7265	lower	-6.69%
688488 SHH	2022-06-03	0.725	lower	-0.52%
ALEMS BRU	2022-07-01	0.7239	flat	0.00%
IKIO NSI	2026-03-13	0.7224	higher	+11.49%
1877 HKG	2024-05-24	0.721	lower	-4.57%
ANIC LSE	2023-10-13	0.7195	higher	+0.65%
271980 KSC	2025-03-07	0.7193	higher	+25.21%
BATAINDIA NSI	2026-04-03	0.7167	higher	+9.33%
0914 HKG	2022-11-04	0.7151	higher	+23.06%

Distinctive drivers

What made this setup unusual

These are the largest deviations from the run baseline, renamed into plain market language.

Sector structure 3.02728
Market Activity -0.55305
Price Cycle -0.47049
Price vs Fair Value -0.46398

This is historical analogue evidence, not advice. It becomes more useful when probability, average return, chart evidence, and nearby examples all point in the same direction.