Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will David Ballantine win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election?

Politics & Policy expectations are steady at 0.4% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 0.4%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 41/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 0.5%
Signal Watch
Score 28
Freshness 4m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 912 Liquidity 11.0K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality41.3
Momentum0.0
Urgency54.9
7d Move0.0 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 0.4%. 24h move +0.0 pts. 7d move +0.0 pts. Data quality 41/100.

Same theme
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Cup Match? 18.5% · Probability Fade · score 69 Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? 15.5% · Probability Fade · score 64 No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? 27.2% · Probability Fade · score 63 Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? 6.0% · Probability Fade · score 61 Exact Score: Saint Patrick´s Athletic FC 1 - 3 Drogheda United FC? 1.7% · Probability Fade · score 60 Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? 29.8% · Probability Surge · score 60