Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly two nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 47.2% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 47.2%. 24h move -31.0 pts. 7d move -31.0 pts. Data quality 29/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 47.2%
Signal Probability Fade
Score 49
Freshness 2m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 951 Liquidity 87 Spread 0.7 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality29.0
Momentum83.7
Urgency25.0
7d Move-31.1 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 47.2%. 24h move -31.0 pts. 7d move -31.0 pts. Data quality 29/100. Expectation is fading; watch for reversal in related assets.

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