Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?

Politics & Policy expectations are falling at 6.5% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 6.5%. 24h move -3.0 pts. 7d move -3.0 pts. Data quality 48/100.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 6.5%
Signal Watch
Score 36
Freshness 2m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 9.9K Liquidity 17.4K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality47.9
Momentum29.4
Urgency25.0
7d Move-3.0 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is falling at 6.5%. 24h move -3.0 pts. 7d move -3.0 pts. Data quality 48/100.

Same theme
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? 0.1% · Probability Fade · score 61 Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? 99.5% · Probability Surge · score 61 Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? 3.1% · Probability Fade · score 61 Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? 71.5% · Probability Fade · score 60 Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? 8.0% · Probability Fade · score 59 Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027? 38.5% · Probability Fade · score 59