Polymarket · Politics & Policy
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026?
Politics & Policy expectations are rising at 95.8% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 95.8%. 24h move +0.2 pts. 7d move +0.2 pts. Data quality 47/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.
Probability
95.8%
Signal
High Conviction
Score
30
Freshness
4m
Probability history
Expectation over time
Volume 9.0K
Liquidity 11.4K
Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy
Why it ranks here
Quality46.7
Momentum3.0
Urgency47.6
7d Move0.3 pts
Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 95.8%. 24h move +0.2 pts. 7d move +0.2 pts. Data quality 47/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.
Same theme