Polymarket · Technology

Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?

Technology expectations are rising at 98.0% on a moderate-quality market. Technology expectation is steady at 98.0%. 24h move +1.0 pts. 7d move +2.0 pts. Data quality 47/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 98.1%
Signal High Conviction
Score 38
Freshness 3m
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 9.8K Liquidity 9.7K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality46.6
Momentum8.1
Urgency77.8
7d Move2.1 pts

Technology expectation is steady at 98.0%. 24h move +1.0 pts. 7d move +2.0 pts. Data quality 47/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

Same theme
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of June? 28.8% · Probability Surge · score 62 Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? 50.5% · Probability Fade · score 45 Will Apple (AAPL) close above $285 on June 22? 93.5% · Watch · score 44 Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? 34.5% · Watch · score 42 Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 end of June? 57.5% · Probability Surge · score 42 Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in June? 10.5% · Probability Fade · score 41