Polymarket · Politics & Policy

Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?

Politics & Policy expectations are rising at 98.8% on a moderate-quality market. Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 98.8%. 24h move +0.4 pts. 7d move +0.4 pts. Data quality 46/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

View Source Market Back to Pulse
Probability 98.8%
Signal High Conviction
Score 21
Freshness 21s
Probability history

Expectation over time

Volume 8.7K Liquidity 10.6K Spread 0.0 pts
Signal anatomy

Why it ranks here

Quality46.5
Momentum2.3
Urgency5.0
7d Move0.4 pts

Politics & Policy expectation is steady at 98.8%. 24h move +0.4 pts. 7d move +0.4 pts. Data quality 46/100. Crowd conviction is high; surprise risk may sit in the opposite outcome.

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