OBE TOR Week ended 24 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

Name: OBE weekly investor report
Creator: Sharemaestro
License: https://sharemaestro.com/data-license/

Obsidian Energy Ltd. · Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

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Latest close 14.93 CAD

10.7% latest week

Weekly setup

Constructive, but selective

The weekly trend is active. Price is 15.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 59.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 10.7%, after a 29.5% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. The latest news-sentiment score is 55/100.

Setup score 60 out of 100

Latest Close 14.93 CAD 24 Jul 2026

1W Return 10.7% latest completed week

4W Return 29.5% short-term follow-through

12W Return -22.5% quarterly tape

Trend Breadth 90.4% 47 of 52 weeks active

Volume Ratio 1.4x vs 13-week average

What is working

The trend backdrop is active with a 1-week active streak.
Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.

What could go wrong

Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
1 reversal markers appear in the recent smart-money tape.
The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.

What to watch next

Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.

Price follow-through 10.7% Latest completed week; four-week move 29.5%. Indicator stack 53/34 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. News sentiment 55/100 40 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.

01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is active. Price is 15.6% above the Trend Line and sits at 59.9% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 10.7%, after a 29.5% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value

Price Trend Line Fair Value

Position in the 52-week range

Close Trend Fair

7.62 CAD 59.9% 19.83 CAD

Range location59.9%Shows where the latest close sits between the 52-week low and high.

Trend distance15.6%Price premium or discount versus the weekly Trend Line.

Fair-value gap54.8%Premium demand or model discount versus Sharemaestro Fair Value.

High-water gap-24.7%Distance from the latest 52-week high.

02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 1.4x the 13-week average. Participation is around or above normal and provides reasonable confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction

30 Jan 6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul

Up week Down week

Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.6412-week average 0.89

12-week confirmation

Trend active10/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.

Positive pressure6/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.

Positive leadership10/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.

Activity pressure0.64Current proprietary activity-pressure read.

Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.

Reversal markers11 reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. 1 reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 29.5% over four weeks, -22.5% over 12 weeks, and 86.4% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 1 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W10.7%

4W29.5%

12W-22.5%

26W62.8%

52W86.4%

Active trend streak1 weeks

Active weeks in one year47

Trend breadth90.4%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership

Pressure-0.75Latest activity-pressure read.

Pressure change-29.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.

Leadership24.31Latest relative-leadership reading.

RS change2288.3%Four-week change in relative leadership.

04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality is middle-of-the-pack; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.

Open full factor analysis

Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 31 Mar 2026 Field coverage 91% Model confidence 87%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength68/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 33; rank 1 is best.

Value63/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 38; rank 1 is best.

Quality24/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 77; rank 1 is best.

Momentum86/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 15; rank 1 is best.

Growth11/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 90; rank 1 is best.

How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Value-quality framework12/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E: 906.3x
Price / sales: 1.8x
EV / EBITDA: 5.8x
Free-cash-flow yield: -5.4%

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin: 53.9%
Operating margin: 7.4%
Free-cash-flow margin: -12.4%
Return on invested capital: 1.9%

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth: -26.7%
EPS growth: -
Free-cash-flow growth: -
Piotroski F-score: 7/9

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield: 0.0%
Buyback yield: 6.4%
Shareholder yield: 6.4%
Net debt / EBITDA: 1.2x

05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Insider activity-

No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.

News sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 40 relevant articles.

9 positive · 28 neutral · 3 negative

Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal

06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings-No event is currently stored.

Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.

52-week drawdown-24.7%Distance below the 52-week high.

13-week volatility9.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

30 Jan 27 Feb 27 Mar 24 Apr 22 May 19 Jun 24 Jul

Weeks higher17 of 269 weeks finished lower.

Best week+33.7%Week of 24 Apr.

Worst week-13.9%Week of 26 Jun.

Latest week+10.7%Week of 24 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains12

Modest gains5

Flat weeks0

Modest losses4

Sharp losses5

Recent vol9.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.

Base vol7.6%52-week weekly-return volatility.

Up/down split32/20Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.

Average skew5.8% / -5.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.

07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

SectorCA Energy

4-week rank5 / 95

Group average6.4%

Trend breadth51.6%

Trend51.6%active weekly trend signals

MD16.8%positive activity pressure

RS62.1%positive relative leadership

Four-week leaders

MATR · TOR40.8%RBY · TOR34.0%TWM · TOR31.3%CDR · TOR29.7%OBE · TOR29.5%

IndustryCA Oil & Gas E&P

4-week rank3 / 47

Group average10.1%

Trend breadth51.1%

Trend51.1%active weekly trend signals

MD8.5%positive activity pressure

RS72.3%positive relative leadership

Four-week leaders

RBY · TOR34.0%CDR · TOR29.7%OBE · TOR29.5%VLE · TOR22.7%TNZ · TOR20.8%

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape55/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 55/100 tape read.

Indicator analysis65/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 10/12, activity pressure 6/12, relative leadership 10/12.

Activity pressure 0.64; 1 reversal markers Factors58/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 6; Small Cap Core rank 18 SVQF12/100

Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.

Composite rank 263.5 of 300 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Sentiment55/100

Weighted news tone is neutral across 40 relevant articles.

European earnings growth estimate rises to 20.8% as energy profits surge Insiders50/100

No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.

Earnings50/100

No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.

Week	Close	Return	Trend Line	Fair Value	Pressure	Leadership	Volume	Trend
24 Jul 2026	14.93 CAD	10.7%	12.92 CAD	9.64 CAD	-0.75	24.31	2.2M	On
17 Jul 2026	13.49 CAD	12.2%	12.69 CAD	9.61 CAD	-0.88	13.50	2.0M	Off
10 Jul 2026	12.02 CAD	5.1%	12.50 CAD	9.57 CAD	-0.95	1.62	2.0M	Off
3 Jul 2026	11.44 CAD	-0.8%	12.38 CAD	9.55 CAD	-0.83	-2.80	1.1M	On
26 Jun 2026	11.53 CAD	-13.9%	12.28 CAD	9.53 CAD	-0.58	-1.11	2.0M	On
19 Jun 2026	13.39 CAD	-13.4%	12.19 CAD	9.51 CAD	-0.33	15.20	175.1K	On
12 Jun 2026	15.47 CAD	0.2%	12.03 CAD	9.47 CAD	0.05	33.82	139.8K	On
5 Jun 2026	15.44 CAD	2.3%	11.80 CAD	9.42 CAD	0.36	36.68	369.2K	On
29 May 2026	15.09 CAD	-9.9%	11.56 CAD	9.37 CAD	0.70	33.60	1.4M	On
22 May 2026	16.74 CAD	-9.5%	11.32 CAD	9.33 CAD	1.13	51.12	1.8M	On
15 May 2026	18.49 CAD	8.8%	11.05 CAD	9.27 CAD	1.47	72.38	1.4M	On
8 May 2026	16.99 CAD	-11.8%	10.70 CAD	9.20 CAD	1.74	60.08	2.5M	On
1 May 2026	19.26 CAD	4.2%	10.42 CAD	9.15 CAD	1.87	85.29	2.5M	On
24 Apr 2026	18.48 CAD	33.7%	10.10 CAD	9.08 CAD	1.87	81.57	4.2M	On

How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.