Universe
Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.
Signal Validation
US ETF Trend Performance Index
US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07%
Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr
Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85
Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322
Avg 379.0/yr ·
31.6/mo ·
7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647
Stop 20.7% ·
Warning 79.3%
Method
How The Index Works
The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.
Entry Rule
An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.
Exit Rule
A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.
Return Math
Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.
Assumptions
- Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
- New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
- Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
- Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
- Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.
Weekly Index
Cumulative Value
Latest Week
Positions In And Out
New Positions In
Entries at weekly closePositions Out
Closed at weekly close
VXZ
CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36
20% entry drawdown · -21.90%
Live Book
Current Holdings
Ticker
Entry
Last Close
Return
Signals
Activity
ROC
RS
ACES
NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY
NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New
Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ
CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New
Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO
NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY
NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD
NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU
NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO
NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL
CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL
NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED
CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU
NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62
Ledger
Transaction History
Date
Action
Ticker
Price
Reason
Return
Qualifiers
9 Jan 2026
Exit
FDEC
CBOE · FT VEST U.S. EQUITY BUFFER ETF - DECEMBER
51.67
Reversal Risk Warning
60.97%
Entry 6 Jan 2023
32.10
9 Jan 2026
Exit
FPAG
CBOE · FPA GLOBAL EQUITY ETF
38.55
Reversal Risk Warning
89.31%
Entry 10 Mar 2023
20.37
9 Jan 2026
Exit
GINN
NYSEARCA · GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST INNOVATE EQTY ETF USD
75.70
Reversal Risk Warning
70.99%
Entry 7 Apr 2023
44.27
9 Jan 2026
Exit
ICAP
NYSEARCA · INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL EQUITY INCOME ETF
27.44
Reversal Risk Warning
39.56%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
19.66
9 Jan 2026
Exit
IEUS
NASDAQ · ISHARES MSCI EUROPE SMALL-CAP ETF
68.93
Reversal Risk Warning
42.46%
Entry 10 Feb 2023
48.39
9 Jan 2026
Exit
IZRL
CBOE · ARK ISRAEL INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY ETF
31.77
Reversal Risk Warning
51.89%
Entry 1 Mar 2024
20.92
9 Jan 2026
Exit
JANT
CBOE · ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER10 JAN ETF
41.69
Reversal Risk Warning
60.03%
Entry 20 Jan 2023
26.05
9 Jan 2026
Exit
JOET
NYSEARCA · VIRTUS ETF TRUST II VIRTUS TERRANOVA US QUALITY MOMENTUM ETF
43.15
Reversal Risk Warning
63.17%
Entry 6 Jan 2023
26.44
9 Jan 2026
Exit
KJUL
CBOE · Innovator U.S. Small Cap Power Buffer ETF - July
32.33
Reversal Risk Warning
28.04%
Entry 13 Jan 2023
25.25
9 Jan 2026
Exit
SIXJ
CBOE · ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY 6 MONTH BUFFER10 JAN/JUL ETF
34.56
Reversal Risk Warning
49.26%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
23.15
9 Jan 2026
Exit
UNL
NYSE · United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund
6.48
20% entry drawdown
-24.48%
Entry 7 Feb 2025
8.58
9 Jan 2026
Exit
YMAR
CBOE · FT VEST INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MODERATE BUFFER ETF - MARCH
27.28
Reversal Risk Warning
38.80%
Entry 13 Jan 2023
19.65
9 Jan 2026
Exit
ZECP
CBOE · ZACKS EARNINGS CONSISTENT PORTFOLIO ETF
35.44
Reversal Risk Warning
52.92%
Entry 13 Jan 2023
23.18
2 Jan 2026
Entry
CNBS
NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY SEYMOUR CANNABIS ETF
28.95
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 68.39 · ROC 8.54% · RS 19.61
2 Jan 2026
Exit
EJAN
NYSEARCA · INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST EMERGING MARKETS POWR BUFFER ETF JANUARY
34.18
Reversal Risk Warning
23.85%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
27.60
2 Jan 2026
Entry
MSOS
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
4.79
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 84.49 · ROC 9.47% · RS 23.88
2 Jan 2026
Entry
WEED
CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
20.34
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 74.42 · ROC 9.61% · RS 22.71
26 Dec 2025
Exit
BGLD
CBOE · FT VEST GOLD STRATEGY QUARTERLY BUFFER ETF
17.58
Reversal Risk Warning
89.44%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
9.28
26 Dec 2025
Exit
BUFG
CBOE · FT VEST BUFFERED ALLOCATION GROWTH ETF
27.71
Reversal Risk Warning
50.09%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
18.46
26 Dec 2025
Exit
FICS
NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED CAPITAL STRENGTH ETF
40.12
Reversal Risk Warning
37.03%
Entry 20 Jan 2023
29.28
26 Dec 2025
Exit
PALL
NYSEARCA · ABRDN PALLADIUM ETF TR ABRDN PHYSICAL PALLADIUM SHARES ETF
35.18
Reversal Risk Warning
69.91%
Entry 27 Jun 2025
20.71
26 Dec 2025
Exit
XTJL
CBOE · Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated Plus ETF - July
39.01
Reversal Risk Warning
58.91%
Entry 13 Jan 2023
24.55
19 Dec 2025
Exit
ABLG
CBOE · ABACUS FCF INTERNATIONAL LEADERS ETF
31.55
Reversal Risk Warning
27.31%
Entry 17 Feb 2023
24.79
19 Dec 2025
Exit
EMD
NYSE · Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund Inc
10.31
Reversal Risk Warning
54.85%
Entry 20 Jan 2023
6.66
19 Dec 2025
Exit
FAPR
CBOE · FT VEST U.S. EQUITY BUFFER ETF - APRIL
44.24
Reversal Risk Warning
45.86%
Entry 27 Jan 2023
30.33
19 Dec 2025
Exit
VIGI
NASDAQ · VANGUARD INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND APPRECIATION INDEX FUND ETF SHARES
90.22
Reversal Risk Warning
36.38%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
66.16
19 Dec 2025
Exit
VIXM
CBOE · ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
15.12
20% entry drawdown
-20.04%
Entry 11 Apr 2025
18.91
19 Dec 2025
Exit
XBOC
CBOE · Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated 9 Buffer ETF - October
33.48
Reversal Risk Warning
41.05%
Entry 10 Mar 2023
23.74
19 Dec 2025
Exit
YCL
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II ULTRA YEN
18.92
20% entry drawdown
-20.97%
Entry 23 May 2025
23.94
5 Dec 2025
Exit
BUFD
CBOE · FT VEST LADDERED DEEP BUFFER ETF
28.13
Reversal Risk Warning
40.65%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
20.00