Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85 Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322 Avg 379.0/yr · 31.6/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647 Stop 20.7% · Warning 79.3%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
2
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
26.31 4 signals · MA 68.64 · ROC 3.09% · RS 14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
6.04 4 signals · MA 79.97 · ROC 5.26% · RS 32.99

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
VXZ CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36 20% entry drawdown · -21.90%

Live Book

Current Holdings

28 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 571-600 of 1322
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
25 Apr 2025
Entry
SDOW NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT DOW30
53.24
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 64.99 · ROC 1.72% · RS 4.78
25 Apr 2025
Entry
SDS NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT S&P 500 (POST REV SPLIT)
100.75
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 76.23 · ROC 1.48% · RS 2.79
25 Apr 2025
Exit
SOXS NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY SEMICONDUCTOR BEAR 3X ETF
357.53
20% entry drawdown
-29.30%
Entry 18 Apr 2025 505.69
25 Apr 2025
Entry
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
12.25
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 45.25 · ROC 1.21% · RS 11.14
25 Apr 2025
Entry
VIXY CBOE · ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
61.91
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 36.28 · ROC 5.67% · RS 29.22
25 Apr 2025
Entry
VXX CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN
63.34
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 49.97 · ROC 5.84% · RS 30.34
18 Apr 2025
Entry
BNKD NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG BANKS -3A INVERSE LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
197.57
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 72.91 · ROC 5.88% · RS 5.92
18 Apr 2025
Entry
DOG NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT DOW30 (POST REV SPLIT)
27.85
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 91.83 · ROC 0.87% · RS 14.06
18 Apr 2025
Entry
HIBS NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY S&P 500 HIGH BETA BEAR 3X ETF
234.61
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 22.90 · ROC 3.57% · RS 21.70
18 Apr 2025
Entry
SH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT S&P 500
44.94
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 87.37 · ROC 1.01% · RS 14.54
18 Apr 2025
Entry
SIJ NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT INDUSTRIALS
33.82
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 70.36 · ROC 1.04% · RS 11.22
18 Apr 2025
Entry
SOXS NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY SEMICONDUCTOR BEAR 3X ETF
505.69
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 16.55 · ROC 4.49% · RS 17.75
18 Apr 2025
Entry
SPDN NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY S&P 500 BEAR 1X ETF
11.74
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 88.98 · ROC 1.06% · RS 14.89
11 Apr 2025
Exit
BOIL NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRA BLOOMBERG NATURAL GAS
126.66
20% entry drawdown
-30.30%
Entry 21 Feb 2025 181.72
11 Apr 2025
Exit
FXE NYSEARCA · INVESCO CCY SHS EURO TR EURO SHS ETF
103.80
Reversal Risk Warning
8.97%
Entry 20 Jan 2023 95.26
11 Apr 2025
Exit
FXF NYSEARCA · INVESCO CCY SHS SWISS FRANC TR SWISS FRANC SHS ETF
108.88
Reversal Risk Warning
13.33%
Entry 6 Jan 2023 96.07
11 Apr 2025
Exit
MNA NYSEARCA · NYLI MERGER ARBITRAGE ETF
34.63
Reversal Risk Warning
10.38%
Entry 6 Jan 2023 31.37
11 Apr 2025
Entry
MZZ NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT MIDCAP 400 NEW APRIL 2021(R/S
11.46
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 69.06 · ROC 2.31% · RS 24.22
11 Apr 2025
Entry
SMDD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT MIDCAP400
22.78
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 55.79 · ROC 3.16% · RS 28.30
11 Apr 2025
Entry
SRTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRAPRO SHORT RUSSELL 2000 NEW(P/S)
108.28
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 73.15 · ROC 4.40% · RS 36.48
11 Apr 2025
Entry
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
23.38
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 16.44 · ROC 1.13% · RS 2.42
11 Apr 2025
Entry
TWM NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT RUSSELL2000
57.78
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 84.67 · ROC 3.23% · RS 30.98
11 Apr 2025
Entry
TZA NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BEAR 3X ETF
19.06
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 73.72 · ROC 4.56% · RS 37.41
11 Apr 2025
Entry
VIXM CBOE · ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
18.91
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 92.09 · ROC 1.89% · RS 32.31
4 Apr 2025
Entry
DRV NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY REAL ESTATE BEAR 3X ETF
31.29
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 46.51 · ROC 1.59% · RS 19.43
4 Apr 2025
Exit
DWSH NASDAQ · ADVISORSHARES DORSEY WRIGHT SHORT ETF
7.93
Reversal Risk Warning
17.74%
Entry 7 Mar 2025 6.73
4 Apr 2025
Entry
FENI NYSEARCA · FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST ENHANCED INTERNATIONAL ETF
26.17
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 31.23 · ROC 0.32% · RS 6.10
4 Apr 2025
Exit
FLTB NYSEARCA · FIDELITY MERRIMACK STREET TRUST LTD TERM BF ETF
47.67
Reversal Risk Warning
11.43%
Entry 24 Mar 2023 42.78
4 Apr 2025
Exit
JSCP NYSEARCA · JP MORGAN ETF TRUST SHORT DURATION CORE PLUS ETF USD
44.68
Reversal Risk Warning
13.49%
Entry 24 Feb 2023 39.37
4 Apr 2025
Exit
MIDU NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X ETF
29.70
20% entry drawdown
-33.17%
Entry 16 Feb 2024 44.45