Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
233.47
Total Return
133.47%
CAGR
27.35% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+6.46%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.81 Sortino 3.02
Current Holdings
27
Transactions
1323 Avg 377.2/yr · 31.4/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
648 Stop 20.8% · Warning 79.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
0
No new entries last week.

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
69.12 20% entry drawdown · -24.91%

Live Book

Current Holdings

27 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
33.27
13.48%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.89
60.72%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
25.29
-3.88%
4
71.09
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
5.56
-7.95%
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
17.48
-5.92%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
59.07
5.42%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
24.12
-6.13%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.71
3.30%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
22.83
5.27%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
16.03
-11.88%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
18.20
34.14%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.76
0.85%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.49
-10.02%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
33.28
16.12%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.19
-4.76%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
57.82
-13.73%
4
73.50
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.23
-12.17%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
49.00
-9.20%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.14
-5.07%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.54
-7.87%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.83
0.28%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.54
-13.97%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
18.08
-0.35%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
23.72
3.81%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
19.58
-9.92%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
14.59
1.32%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
23.09
3.96%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 661-690 of 1323
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
6 Dec 2024
Exit
HMOP NYSEARCA · HARTFORD FUNDS EXCHANGE TRADED TR MUNICIPAL OPPORTUNITIES ETF
37.37
Reversal Risk Warning
10.53%
Entry 24 Feb 2023 33.81
6 Dec 2024
Exit
IWP NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST RUSSELL MID-CAP GROWTH ETF
137.66
Reversal Risk Warning
53.01%
Entry 10 Feb 2023 89.97
6 Dec 2024
Exit
MMIT NYSEARCA · NYLI MACKAY MUNI INTERMEDIATE ETF
23.22
Reversal Risk Warning
8.58%
Entry 24 Feb 2023 21.38
6 Dec 2024
Exit
SKYU NASDAQ · PROSHARES ULTRA NASDAQ CLOUD COMPUTING
43.10
Reversal Risk Warning
157.18%
Entry 2 Jun 2023 16.76
6 Dec 2024
Exit
UCC NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
55.13
Reversal Risk Warning
57.39%
Entry 16 Feb 2024 35.03
6 Dec 2024
Exit
WANT NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BULL 3X ETF
61.02
Reversal Risk Warning
80.42%
Entry 23 Feb 2024 33.82
6 Dec 2024
Exit
XDAT CBOE · FRANKLIN EXPONENTIAL DATA ETF
27.73
Reversal Risk Warning
32.88%
Entry 8 Dec 2023 20.87
6 Dec 2024
Exit
XITK NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR FACTSET INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY ETF
190.48
Reversal Risk Warning
33.62%
Entry 12 Jan 2024 142.55
29 Nov 2024
Exit
FAS NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BULL 3X ETF
166.45
Reversal Risk Warning
127.16%
Entry 22 Dec 2023 73.27
29 Nov 2024
Exit
MINO NYSEARCA · PIMCO ETF TRUST PIMCO MUNI INCOME OPPORTNS ACTIVE ETF
43.30
Reversal Risk Warning
12.41%
Entry 24 Feb 2023 38.52
29 Nov 2024
Exit
MUST NYSEARCA · COLUMBIA ETF TR I MULTI SECTOR MUNICIPAL INCOME ETF
19.80
Reversal Risk Warning
8.44%
Entry 24 Feb 2023 18.26
22 Nov 2024
Exit
DPST NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY REGIONAL BANKS BULL 3X ETF
152.43
Reversal Risk Warning
70.23%
Entry 16 Aug 2024 89.54
22 Nov 2024
Exit
LSAT NYSEARCA · TWO RDS SHARED TRUST LEADERSHARES ALPHAFACTOR TACTICAL FO ETF
42.00
Reversal Risk Warning
40.15%
Entry 10 Mar 2023 29.97
15 Nov 2024
Exit
YINN NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA BULL 3X ETF
27.02
20% entry drawdown
-21.79%
Entry 18 Oct 2024 34.55
8 Nov 2024
Exit
ESMV NASDAQ · ISHARES ESG MSCI USA MIN VOL FACTOR ETF
28.68
Reversal Risk Warning
32.13%
Entry 20 Jan 2023 21.71
8 Nov 2024
Exit
KONG CBOE · Formidable Fortress ETF
30.25
Reversal Risk Warning
28.46%
Entry 6 Jan 2023 23.55
8 Nov 2024
Exit
PFI NASDAQ · INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT FINANCIAL MOMENTUM ETF
59.68
Reversal Risk Warning
47.27%
Entry 24 Feb 2023 40.52
8 Nov 2024
Exit
SMCP NYSEARCA · SMART MID CAP ETF
35.24
Reversal Risk Warning
40.74%
Entry 24 Feb 2023 25.04
8 Nov 2024
Exit
SXQG NYSEARCA · EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS TRUST ETC 6 MERIDIAN QUALITY GROWTH ETF
32.36
Reversal Risk Warning
54.80%
Entry 6 Jan 2023 20.90
8 Nov 2024
Exit
TMFS CBOE · MOTLEY FOOL SMALL-CAP GROWTH ETF
37.96
Reversal Risk Warning
41.38%
Entry 10 Feb 2023 26.85
1 Nov 2024
Entry
CNXT NYSEARCA · VANECK CHINEXT INNOVATORS ETF
28.03
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 96.45 · ROC 3.36% · RS 8.26
1 Nov 2024
Entry
EWH NYSEARCA · ISHARES INC MSCI HONG KONG ETF
16.48
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 75.70 · ROC 2.28% · RS 0.10
1 Nov 2024
Entry
KSTR NYSEARCA · KRANESHARES TR SSE STAR MKT 50 INDEX ETF
12.95
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 95.84 · ROC 2.64% · RS 4.56
25 Oct 2024
Entry
ASHR NYSEARCA · DBX ETF TRUST XTRACKERS HARVST CSI 300 A SHARES ETF
26.87
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 93.50 · ROC 2.73% · RS 1.33
25 Oct 2024
Entry
CHAU NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY CSI 300 CHINA A SHARE BULL 2X ETF
15.76
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 91.53 · ROC 4.50% · RS 4.56
25 Oct 2024
Entry
CNYA CBOE · ISHARES MSCI CHINA A ETF
28.23
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 92.86 · ROC 2.48% · RS 0.31
25 Oct 2024
Entry
CQQQ NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II CHINA TECHNOLOGY ETF USD
39.81
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 93.64 · ROC 4.35% · RS 5.09
25 Oct 2024
Entry
CWEB NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY CSI CHINA INTERNET INDEX BULL 2X ETF
36.27
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 92.89 · ROC 6.93% · RS 6.50
25 Oct 2024
Entry
PILL NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY PHARMACEUTICAL & MEDICAL BULL 3X ETF
8.68
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 66.37 · ROC 1.47% · RS 6.93
25 Oct 2024
Exit
TMF NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY 20+ YEAR TREASURY BULL 3X ETF
44.97
20% entry drawdown
-23.49%
Entry 13 Sep 2024 58.78