Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85 Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322 Avg 379.0/yr · 31.6/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647 Stop 20.7% · Warning 79.3%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
2
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
26.31 4 signals · MA 68.64 · ROC 3.09% · RS 14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
6.04 4 signals · MA 79.97 · ROC 5.26% · RS 32.99

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
VXZ CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36 20% entry drawdown · -21.90%

Live Book

Current Holdings

28 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 751-780 of 1322
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
1 Mar 2024
Entry
FFTY NYSEARCA · CAPFORCE IBD 50 ETF
27.33
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 95.56 · ROC 1.06% · RS 1.14
1 Mar 2024
Entry
IZRL CBOE · ARK ISRAEL INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY ETF
20.92
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 85.90 · ROC 0.95% · RS 0.51
1 Mar 2024
Entry
UWM NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULTRUSS2000
38.31
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 47.59 · ROC 0.45% · RS 3.11
23 Feb 2024
Entry
LABU NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY S&P BIOTECH BULL 3X ETF
135.32
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 48.13 · ROC 1.05% · RS 12.88
23 Feb 2024
Exit
SMN NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT MATERIALS
28.92
20% entry drawdown
-20.54%
Entry 10 Nov 2023 36.40
23 Feb 2024
Entry
UBOT NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY ROBOTICS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & AUTOMATION INDEX BULL 2X ETF
23.02
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 61.48 · ROC 0.09% · RS 8.90
23 Feb 2024
Entry
WANT NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY BULL 3X ETF
33.82
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 25.96 · ROC 0.03% · RS 7.19
16 Feb 2024
Entry
BBC NYSEARCA · VIRTUS BIOTECH CLINICAL TRIALS ETF
27.90
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 83.60 · ROC 1.74% · RS 10.46
16 Feb 2024
Entry
HIBL NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY S&P 500 HIGH BETA BULL 3X ETF
41.01
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 34.18 · ROC 0.96% · RS 14.03
16 Feb 2024
Exit
KOLD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II ULTRASHORT BLOOMBERG NATURAL GAS(R/S)
82.79
Reversal Risk Warning
117.00%
Entry 5 Jan 2024 38.15
16 Feb 2024
Entry
MIDU NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X ETF
44.45
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 37.74 · ROC 0.95% · RS 6.18
16 Feb 2024
Entry
MSOX NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES MSOS DAILY LEVERAGED ETF
107.20
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 66.49 · ROC 9.09% · RS 15.71
16 Feb 2024
Entry
TMAT CBOE · MAIN THEMATIC INNOVATION ETF
16.82
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 46.01 · ROC 0.84% · RS 1.69
16 Feb 2024
Entry
UCC NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
35.03
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 21.94 · ROC 0.16% · RS 1.87
16 Feb 2024
Entry
UMDD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRAPRO MIDCAP400
22.51
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 37.31 · ROC 0.88% · RS 6.12
16 Feb 2024
Entry
XBI NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR S&P BIOTECH ETF
92.68
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 46.45 · ROC 1.10% · RS 0.76
2 Feb 2024
Entry
FRTY NYSEARCA · THE ALGER ETF TRUST MID CAP 40 ETF
14.53
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 53.99 · ROC 1.25% · RS 1.39
26 Jan 2024
Entry
CNBS NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY SEYMOUR CANNABIS ETF
40.40
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 49.07 · ROC 3.24% · RS 2.67
26 Jan 2024
Entry
RETL NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY RETAIL BULL 3X ETF
7.94
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 18.98 · ROC 2.73% · RS 1.73
19 Jan 2024
Entry
CEE NYSE · Central and Eastern Europe Fund Inc (The)
9.18
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 79.58 · ROC 2.05% · RS 0.29
19 Jan 2024
Exit
GXC NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR S&P CHINA ETF
58.54
20% entry drawdown
-23.26%
Entry 3 Mar 2023 76.29
19 Jan 2024
Exit
KWEB NYSEARCA · KRANESHARES TRUST CSI CHINA INTERNET ETF
21.69
20% entry drawdown
-23.73%
Entry 10 Feb 2023 28.44
19 Jan 2024
Exit
YANG NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA BEAR 3X ETF
313.16
Reversal Risk Warning
46.95%
Entry 10 Nov 2023 213.11
12 Jan 2024
Entry
BKCH NASDAQ · GLOBAL X BLOCKCHAIN ETF
33.67
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 92.15 · ROC 9.36% · RS 18.10
12 Jan 2024
Entry
BNKU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG BANKS 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
22.61
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 90.57 · ROC 6.97% · RS 9.27
12 Jan 2024
Entry
CRPT NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII SKYBRIDGE CRYPTO INDSTRY AND DIGTL ECONM
7.50
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 88.90 · ROC 9.21% · RS 18.99
12 Jan 2024
Exit
FLCH NYSEARCA · FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR FTSE CHINA ETF
14.55
20% entry drawdown
-20.13%
Entry 3 Mar 2023 18.22
12 Jan 2024
Exit
PWZ NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II CALIF AMT-FREE MUN BD ETF
23.17
Reversal Risk Warning
4.61%
Entry 24 Mar 2023 22.15
12 Jan 2024
Entry
XITK NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR FACTSET INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGY ETF
142.55
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 54.97 · ROC 1.80% · RS 2.73
5 Jan 2024
Entry
ARKK CBOE · ARK INNOVATION ETF
48.90
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 72.79 · ROC 3.53% · RS 7.31