Universe
Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.
Signal Validation
US ETF Trend Performance Index
US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07%
Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr
Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85
Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322
Avg 379.0/yr ·
31.6/mo ·
7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647
Stop 20.7% ·
Warning 79.3%
Method
How The Index Works
The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.
Entry Rule
An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.
Exit Rule
A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.
Return Math
Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.
Assumptions
- Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
- New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
- Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
- Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
- Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.
Weekly Index
Cumulative Value
Latest Week
Positions In And Out
New Positions In
Entries at weekly closePositions Out
Closed at weekly close
VXZ
CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36
20% entry drawdown · -21.90%
Live Book
Current Holdings
Ticker
Entry
Last Close
Return
Signals
Activity
ROC
RS
ACES
NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY
NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New
Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ
CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New
Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO
NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY
NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD
NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU
NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO
NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL
CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL
NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED
CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU
NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62
Ledger
Transaction History
Date
Action
Ticker
Price
Reason
Return
Qualifiers
29 May 2026
Exit
SCC
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
13.75
20% entry drawdown
-20.52%
Entry 3 Apr 2026
17.30
29 May 2026
Exit
TAN
NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II SOLAR ETF
73.93
Reversal Risk Warning
85.57%
Entry 15 Aug 2025
39.84
29 May 2026
Exit
TECL
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3X ETF
245.15
Reversal Risk Warning
646.88%
Entry 14 Apr 2023
32.82
29 May 2026
Exit
TMAT
CBOE · MAIN THEMATIC INNOVATION ETF
29.83
Reversal Risk Warning
77.39%
Entry 16 Feb 2024
16.82
29 May 2026
Exit
TQQQ
NASDAQ · PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ
84.36
Reversal Risk Warning
518.70%
Entry 28 Apr 2023
13.64
29 May 2026
Exit
UMMA
NASDAQ · WAHED DOW JONES ISLAMIC WORLD ETF
38.32
Reversal Risk Warning
97.96%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
19.36
29 May 2026
Exit
XCEM
NYSEARCA · COLUMBIA ETF TR II COLUMBIA EM CORE EX CHINA ETF
52.43
Reversal Risk Warning
108.87%
Entry 17 Feb 2023
25.10
29 May 2026
Exit
XNTK
NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR NYSE TECHNOLOGY ETF
370.38
Reversal Risk Warning
208.74%
Entry 31 Mar 2023
119.97
22 May 2026
Exit
CHGX
NASDAQ · STANCE SUSTAINABLE BETA ETF
31.96
Reversal Risk Warning
81.86%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
17.57
22 May 2026
Exit
CTEC
NASDAQ · GLOBAL X CLEANTECH ETF
73.84
Reversal Risk Warning
88.16%
Entry 1 Aug 2025
39.24
22 May 2026
Exit
CTEX
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST S&P KENSHO CLEANTECH ETF
46.24
Reversal Risk Warning
84.98%
Entry 15 Aug 2025
25.00
22 May 2026
Exit
HYDR
NASDAQ · GLOBAL X HYDROGEN ETF
70.76
Reversal Risk Warning
184.58%
Entry 15 Aug 2025
24.86
22 May 2026
Exit
IGM
NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST EXPANDED TECH SECTOR ETF
157.13
Reversal Risk Warning
183.42%
Entry 7 Apr 2023
55.44
22 May 2026
Exit
ILDR
NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII INNOVATION LEADERS ETF
37.71
Reversal Risk Warning
136.97%
Entry 7 Apr 2023
15.91
22 May 2026
Exit
IWDL
NYSE · UBS AG London Branch
59.45
Reversal Risk Warning
101.89%
Entry 20 Jan 2023
29.45
22 May 2026
Exit
JSMD
NASDAQ · JANUS HENDERSON SMALL/MID CAP GROWTH ALPHA ETF
93.11
Reversal Risk Warning
67.16%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
55.70
22 May 2026
Exit
PBW
NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR WILDERHILL CLEAN ENERGY ETF
42.76
Reversal Risk Warning
84.34%
Entry 8 Aug 2025
23.20
22 May 2026
Exit
QCLN
NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST NASDAQ CLEAN EDGE GREEN ENERGY INDEX FUND
63.40
Reversal Risk Warning
66.94%
Entry 22 Aug 2025
37.98
22 May 2026
Exit
QLD
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULTRA QQQ
93.04
Reversal Risk Warning
285.56%
Entry 14 Apr 2023
24.13
22 May 2026
Exit
QQQJ
NASDAQ · INVESCO NASDAQ NEXT GEN 100 ETF
43.20
Reversal Risk Warning
75.88%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
24.56
22 May 2026
Exit
SPXL
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY S&P 500 BULL 3X ETF
272.53
Reversal Risk Warning
269.30%
Entry 28 Apr 2023
73.80
22 May 2026
Exit
TECB
NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST ISHARES US TECH BREAKTHROUGH MULTISECTR
70.46
Reversal Risk Warning
114.21%
Entry 31 Mar 2023
32.89
22 May 2026
Exit
THNQ
NYSEARCA · EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS TRUST ROBO GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ETF
84.72
Reversal Risk Warning
188.59%
Entry 10 Mar 2023
29.36
22 May 2026
Exit
UFO
NASDAQ · PROCURE SPACE ETF
61.83
Reversal Risk Warning
251.52%
Entry 6 Sep 2024
17.59
22 May 2026
Exit
UPRO
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P500
142.76
Reversal Risk Warning
267.69%
Entry 28 Apr 2023
38.83
22 May 2026
Exit
XPND
NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII EXPANDED TECHNOLOGY ETF
39.58
Reversal Risk Warning
120.40%
Entry 7 Apr 2023
17.96
22 May 2026
Exit
XT
NASDAQ · ISHARES EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES ETF
80.63
Reversal Risk Warning
75.29%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
46.00
15 May 2026
Exit
FRNW
CBOE · Fidelity Clean Energy ETF
26.05
Reversal Risk Warning
58.02%
Entry 4 Jul 2025
16.49
8 May 2026
Exit
AAXJ
NASDAQ · ISHARES MSCI ALL COUNTRY ASIA EX JAPAN ETF
117.09
Reversal Risk Warning
83.10%
Entry 17 Feb 2023
63.95
8 May 2026
Exit
AGOX
NYSEARCA · STARBOARD INVESTMENT TRUST ADAPTIVE ALPHA OPPORTUNITIES ETF
34.00
Reversal Risk Warning
65.56%
Entry 17 Feb 2023
20.54