Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85 Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322 Avg 379.0/yr · 31.6/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647 Stop 20.7% · Warning 79.3%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
2
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
26.31 4 signals · MA 68.64 · ROC 3.09% · RS 14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
6.04 4 signals · MA 79.97 · ROC 5.26% · RS 32.99

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
VXZ CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36 20% entry drawdown · -21.90%

Live Book

Current Holdings

28 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 871-900 of 1322
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
5 May 2023
Entry
FNGG NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY NYSE FANG+ BULL 2X ETF
44.02
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 53.93 · ROC 0.92% · RS 2.63
5 May 2023
Entry
SSO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULT S&P 500
24.78
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 49.15 · ROC 2.51% · RS 0.32
28 Apr 2023
Entry
LTL NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA COMMUNICATION SERVICES
8.94
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 61.03 · ROC 2.08% · RS 2.12
28 Apr 2023
Entry
SATO CBOE · INVESCO ALERIAN GALAXY CRYPTO ECONOMY ETF
5.55
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 77.29 · ROC 0.43% · RS 2.12
28 Apr 2023
Entry
SPXL NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY S&P 500 BULL 3X ETF
73.80
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 46.22 · ROC 1.95% · RS 0.96
28 Apr 2023
Entry
TQQQ NASDAQ · PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ
13.64
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 68.93 · ROC 2.46% · RS 3.45
28 Apr 2023
Entry
UPRO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST PROSHARES ULTRAPRO S&P500
38.83
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 45.54 · ROC 1.87% · RS 0.47
28 Apr 2023
Entry
WGMI NASDAQ · COINSHARES BITCOIN MINING ETF
10.44
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 77.35 · ROC 1.25% · RS 4.41
21 Apr 2023
Entry
XOVR NASDAQ · ERSHARES PRIVATE-PUBLIC CROSSOVER ETF
10.81
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 60.31 · ROC 1.32% · RS 0.11
14 Apr 2023
Entry
AGQ NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRA SILVER
34.58
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 45.74 · ROC 6.07% · RS 24.61
14 Apr 2023
Entry
ARKF CBOE · ARK BLOCKCHAIN & FINTECH INNOVATION ETF
18.42
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 22.64 · ROC 0.45% · RS 1.31
14 Apr 2023
Entry
BITS NASDAQ · GLOBAL X BLOCKCHAIN & BITCOIN STRATEGY ETF
20.52
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 70.85 · ROC 1.92% · RS 13.71
14 Apr 2023
Entry
BUZZ NYSEARCA · VANECK ETF TR VANECK SOCIAL SENTIMENT ETF
14.55
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 27.87 · ROC 0.19% · RS 0.00
14 Apr 2023
Entry
FCOM NYSEARCA · FIDELITY COVINGTON TRUST MSCI COMMUNICATION SERVICES INDEX ETF
36.19
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 67.28 · ROC 0.54% · RS 1.43
14 Apr 2023
Entry
GBTC NYSEARCA · GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST ETF
17.43
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 84.25 · ROC 4.73% · RS 22.34
14 Apr 2023
Entry
IGPT NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR AI AND NEXT GEN SOFTWARE
33.80
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 32.69 · ROC 0.44% · RS 1.40
14 Apr 2023
Entry
ILCG NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST MORNINGSTAR GROWTH ETF
54.29
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 52.11 · ROC 0.30% · RS 0.47
14 Apr 2023
Entry
JNUG NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY JUNIOR GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 2X ETF
45.37
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 58.10 · ROC 6.23% · RS 21.22
14 Apr 2023
Entry
KSTR NYSEARCA · KRANESHARES TR SSE STAR MKT 50 INDEX ETF
17.46
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 56.22 · ROC 0.85% · RS 1.85
14 Apr 2023
Entry
MMLG NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII FIRST TR MULTI MANAGER LARGE GROWTH ETF
18.88
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 45.46 · ROC 0.32% · RS 0.17
14 Apr 2023
Entry
PGRO NYSEARCA · PUTNAM ETF TR PUTNAM FOCUSED LARGE CAP GROWTH ETF
22.97
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 67.75 · ROC 0.31% · RS 1.50
14 Apr 2023
Entry
PWB NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR LARGE CAP GROWTH ETF
65.19
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 32.46 · ROC 0.46% · RS 0.26
14 Apr 2023
Entry
QLD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULTRA QQQ
24.13
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 75.91 · ROC 0.69% · RS 5.24
14 Apr 2023
Exit
SCO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II ULTRASHORT BLOOMBERG CRUDE OIL 2026 (R/S
86.76
20% entry drawdown
-20.61%
Entry 6 Jan 2023 109.28
14 Apr 2023
Entry
TCHP NYSEARCA · T ROWE PRICE EXCHANGE TRD FDS INC BLUE CHIP GROWTH ETF
24.15
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 72.73 · ROC 0.20% · RS 0.97
14 Apr 2023
Entry
TECL NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY TECHNOLOGY BULL 3X ETF
32.82
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 78.64 · ROC 1.86% · RS 9.19
14 Apr 2023
Entry
TGRW NYSEARCA · T ROWE PRICE EXCHANGE TRD FDS INC GROWTH STK ETF
24.16
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 74.02 · ROC 0.31% · RS 1.40
14 Apr 2023
Entry
VOX NYSEARCA · VANGUARD WORLD FUND VANGUARD COMMNCTN SERV ETF
95.40
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 67.17 · ROC 0.57% · RS 1.50
14 Apr 2023
Entry
VUG NYSEARCA · VANGUARD INDEX FUNDS VANGUARD GROWTH ETF
40.80
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 76.64 · ROC 0.45% · RS 1.67
14 Apr 2023
Entry
WTAI CBOE · WISDOMTREE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND INNOVATION FUND
16.42
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 32.20 · ROC 0.77% · RS 0.16