Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85 Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322 Avg 379.0/yr · 31.6/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647 Stop 20.7% · Warning 79.3%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
2
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
26.31 4 signals · MA 68.64 · ROC 3.09% · RS 14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
6.04 4 signals · MA 79.97 · ROC 5.26% · RS 32.99

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
VXZ CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36 20% entry drawdown · -21.90%

Live Book

Current Holdings

28 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 901-930 of 1322
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
7 Apr 2023
Entry
EOT NYSE · Eaton Vance National Municipal Opportunities Trust
15.33
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 33.88 · ROC 0.38% · RS 0.88
7 Apr 2023
Entry
FBCG CBOE · FIDELITY BLUE CHIP GROWTH ETF
25.03
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 45.78 · ROC 0.05% · RS 2.34
7 Apr 2023
Entry
FDN NYSEARCA · FIRST TRUST EXCHANGE TRADED FUND DOW JONES INTERNET INDEX USD DIS
144.58
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 40.12 · ROC 0.10% · RS 1.23
7 Apr 2023
Entry
FFLG CBOE · FIDELITY FUNDAMENTAL LARGE CAP GROWTH ETF
14.56
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 37.94 · ROC 0.03% · RS 1.71
7 Apr 2023
Entry
FNGO NYSE · Bank of Montreal
24.08
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 76.62 · ROC 1.75% · RS 20.28
7 Apr 2023
Entry
GINN NYSEARCA · GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST INNOVATE EQTY ETF USD
44.27
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 27.30 · ROC 0.21% · RS 0.37
7 Apr 2023
Entry
HFGO CBOE · HARTFORD LARGE CAP GROWTH ETF
13.49
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 45.40 · ROC 0.47% · RS 2.91
7 Apr 2023
Entry
IETC CBOE · ISHARES U.S. TECH INDEPENDENCE FOCUSED ETF
45.89
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 49.16 · ROC 0.07% · RS 2.33
7 Apr 2023
Entry
IGM NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST EXPANDED TECH SECTOR ETF
55.44
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 58.80 · ROC 0.45% · RS 4.28
7 Apr 2023
Entry
IGV CBOE · ISHARES EXPANDED TECH-SOFTWARE SECTOR ETF
59.93
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 56.89 · ROC 0.30% · RS 3.44
7 Apr 2023
Entry
ILDR NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII INNOVATION LEADERS ETF
15.91
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 27.71 · ROC 0.04% · RS 1.42
7 Apr 2023
Entry
LRGE NASDAQ · CLEARBRIDGE LARGE CAP GROWTH ESG ETF
46.94
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 56.17 · ROC 0.62% · RS 0.10
7 Apr 2023
Entry
METV NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST ROUNDHILL BALL METAVERSE ETF USD
9.22
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 74.69 · ROC 0.48% · RS 5.14
7 Apr 2023
Entry
NUGO NYSEARCA · NUSHARES ETF TRUST GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES ETF
19.79
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 47.38 · ROC 0.08% · RS 1.39
7 Apr 2023
Entry
NUGT NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 2X ETF
45.51
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 49.34 · ROC 6.13% · RS 23.83
7 Apr 2023
Entry
PNQI NASDAQ · INVESCO NASDAQ INTERNET ETF
27.89
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 54.57 · ROC 0.56% · RS 1.33
7 Apr 2023
Entry
QDEC CBOE · FT VEST NASDAQ-100 BUFFER ETF - DECEMBER
20.68
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 74.51 · ROC 0.13% · RS 1.42
7 Apr 2023
Entry
QPX NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST ADVISORSHARES Q DYNAMIC GROWTH ETF
24.86
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 77.48 · ROC 0.40% · RS 3.55
7 Apr 2023
Entry
QQQM NASDAQ · INVESCO NASDAQ 100 ETF
128.39
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 70.97 · ROC 0.35% · RS 0.03
7 Apr 2023
Entry
QTAP CBOE · Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - April
26.74
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 81.19 · ROC 0.05% · RS 3.08
7 Apr 2023
Entry
QTOC CBOE · Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - October
21.29
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 78.53 · ROC 0.16% · RS 2.32
7 Apr 2023
Entry
ROM NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST PSHS ULTRA TECH
33.63
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 73.42 · ROC 0.04% · RS 8.65
7 Apr 2023
Entry
SPBC NASDAQ · SIMPLIFY US EQUITY PLUS BITCOIN STRATEGY ETF
22.08
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 63.98 · ROC 0.66% · RS 0.48
7 Apr 2023
Entry
TSPA NYSEARCA · T ROWE PRICE EXCHANGE TRD FDS INC US EQUITY RESEARCH ETF
24.20
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 20.52 · ROC 0.01% · RS 0.45
7 Apr 2023
Entry
USD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST PROSHARES ULTRA SEMICONDUCTORS
6.57
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 62.67 · ROC 4.11% · RS 17.82
7 Apr 2023
Entry
XLC NYSEARCA · SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST STATE STREET COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELE
57.04
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 67.71 · ROC 0.50% · RS 4.80
7 Apr 2023
Entry
XPND NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VIII EXPANDED TECHNOLOGY ETF
17.96
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 44.95 · ROC 0.40% · RS 1.97
31 Mar 2023
Entry
ESPO NASDAQ · VANECK VIDEO GAMING AND ESPORTS ETF
51.51
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 59.35 · ROC 0.59% · RS 3.09
31 Mar 2023
Entry
IXP NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST GLOBAL COMM SERVICES ETF
60.10
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 38.93 · ROC 0.02% · RS 2.50
31 Mar 2023
Exit
QID NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT QQQ (POST REV SPLIT)
74.32
20% entry drawdown
-24.40%
Entry 13 Jan 2023 98.31