Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85 Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322 Avg 379.0/yr · 31.6/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647 Stop 20.7% · Warning 79.3%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
2
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
26.31 4 signals · MA 68.64 · ROC 3.09% · RS 14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
6.04 4 signals · MA 79.97 · ROC 5.26% · RS 32.99

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
VXZ CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36 20% entry drawdown · -21.90%

Live Book

Current Holdings

28 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 961-990 of 1322
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
10 Mar 2023
Entry
OIA NYSE · Invesco Municipal Income Opportunities Trust
5.53
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 55.08 · ROC 0.58% · RS 7.77
10 Mar 2023
Entry
PCN NYSE · PIMCO Corporate & Income Strategy Fund
9.17
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 61.11 · ROC 0.41% · RS 5.42
10 Mar 2023
Entry
PRAY NYSEARCA · FIS CHRISTIAN STOCK FUND
21.42
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 35.86 · ROC 0.08% · RS 1.32
10 Mar 2023
Entry
QTJL CBOE · Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - July
21.53
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 49.39 · ROC 0.25% · RS 3.44
10 Mar 2023
Entry
THNQ NYSEARCA · EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS TRUST ROBO GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ETF
29.36
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 50.24 · ROC 0.07% · RS 4.27
10 Mar 2023
Entry
VABS NYSEARCA · VIRTUS ETF TRUST II VIRTUS NEWFLEET ABS/MBS ETF
19.90
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 35.70 · ROC 0.04% · RS 3.59
10 Mar 2023
Entry
XBOC CBOE · Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated 9 Buffer ETF - October
23.74
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 37.69 · ROC 0.10% · RS 3.69
3 Mar 2023
Entry
AIQ NASDAQ · Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF
22.96
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 45.08 · ROC 0.51% · RS 4.14
3 Mar 2023
Entry
ANEW NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST MSCI TRANSFORMATIONAL CHANGES ETF
32.96
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 43.36 · ROC 0.11% · RS 0.10
3 Mar 2023
Entry
DIEM NYSEARCA · FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR EMERGING MARKET CORE DIVIDEND TILT INDEX
20.95
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 23.24 · ROC 0.73% · RS 1.05
3 Mar 2023
Entry
EWH NYSEARCA · ISHARES INC MSCI HONG KONG ETF
18.11
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 15.71 · ROC 0.04% · RS 0.85
3 Mar 2023
Entry
EZJ NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA MSCI JAPAN
29.01
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 27.05 · ROC 0.30% · RS 1.14
3 Mar 2023
Entry
FLAX NYSEARCA · FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR FRANKLIN FTSE ASIA EX JAPAN ETF
19.83
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 15.79 · ROC 0.21% · RS 0.36
3 Mar 2023
Entry
FLCH NYSEARCA · FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR FTSE CHINA ETF
18.22
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 18.81 · ROC 0.01% · RS 1.98
3 Mar 2023
Entry
GMF NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR S&P EMERGING ASIA PACIFIC ETF
94.99
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 15.32 · ROC 0.28% · RS 0.89
3 Mar 2023
Entry
GXC NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR S&P CHINA ETF
76.29
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 19.81 · ROC 0.04% · RS 2.26
3 Mar 2023
Exit
KOLD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II ULTRASHORT BLOOMBERG NATURAL GAS(R/S)
21.03
20% entry drawdown
-37.72%
Entry 3 Feb 2023 33.76
3 Mar 2023
Entry
MCHI NASDAQ · ISHARES MSCI CHINA ETF
46.69
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 19.52 · ROC 0.06% · RS 2.98
3 Mar 2023
Entry
OND NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ON-DEMAND ETF
21.46
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 32.42 · ROC 0.16% · RS 1.58
3 Mar 2023
Entry
RXI NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST GLOBAL CONS DISC ETF
135.52
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 46.85 · ROC 0.51% · RS 2.74
3 Mar 2023
Entry
SDEM NYSEARCA · GLOBAL X FDS MSCI SUPERDIVIDEND EMERGING MRKTS (R/S)
20.04
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 24.54 · ROC 0.87% · RS 0.42
3 Mar 2023
Entry
SOXQ NASDAQ · INVESCO PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
23.32
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 56.59 · ROC 0.65% · RS 7.79
3 Mar 2023
Entry
TINY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST NANOTECHNOLOGY ETF
32.92
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 43.99 · ROC 0.19% · RS 5.30
3 Mar 2023
Entry
UBOT NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY ROBOTICS, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & AUTOMATION INDEX BULL 2X ETF
16.21
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 53.52 · ROC 1.00% · RS 7.91
24 Feb 2023
Entry
AAAU CBOE · Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF
17.96
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 19.96 · ROC 0.84% · RS 0.35
24 Feb 2023
Entry
ACWX NASDAQ · ISHARES MSCI ACWI EX U.S. ETF
42.72
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 57.16 · ROC 1.12% · RS 4.48
24 Feb 2023
Entry
AFIF CBOE · Anfield Universal Fixed Income ETF
7.49
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 84.03 · ROC 0.33% · RS 1.40
24 Feb 2023
Exit
AGQ NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRA SILVER
23.39
20% entry drawdown
-25.91%
Entry 6 Jan 2023 31.57
24 Feb 2023
Entry
AOR NYSEARCA · ISHARES CORE 60/40 BALANCED ALLOCATION ETF
44.64
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 46.25 · ROC 0.37% · RS 0.22
24 Feb 2023
Entry
ARTY NYSEARCA · ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF
28.97
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 74.35 · ROC 1.43% · RS 5.66