Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85 Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322 Avg 379.0/yr · 31.6/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647 Stop 20.7% · Warning 79.3%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
2
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
26.31 4 signals · MA 68.64 · ROC 3.09% · RS 14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
6.04 4 signals · MA 79.97 · ROC 5.26% · RS 32.99

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
VXZ CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36 20% entry drawdown · -21.90%

Live Book

Current Holdings

28 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 991-1020 of 1322
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
24 Feb 2023
Entry
AVMU NYSEARCA · AMERICAN CENTURY ETF TRUST AVANTIS CORE MUN FXD INCOME ETF
41.07
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 41.29 · ROC 0.13% · RS 0.67
24 Feb 2023
Entry
BAR NYSEARCA · GRANITESHARES GOLD TRUST SHS BEN INT NPV
17.94
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 19.99 · ROC 0.84% · RS 0.40
24 Feb 2023
Entry
BGLD CBOE · FT VEST GOLD STRATEGY QUARTERLY BUFFER ETF
9.28
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 33.86 · ROC 0.67% · RS 1.16
24 Feb 2023
Entry
BIBL NYSEARCA · NORTHERN LIGHTS FUND TRUST IV INSPIRE 100 ETF
30.19
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 53.73 · ROC 0.73% · RS 0.24
24 Feb 2023
Entry
BNGE NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE TRADED FD VI S NETWORK STREAMING & GAMING ETF
18.95
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 73.13 · ROC 0.91% · RS 1.84
24 Feb 2023
Entry
BTZ NYSE · BlackRock Credit Allocation Income Trust
7.67
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 80.02 · ROC 0.58% · RS 1.08
24 Feb 2023
Entry
BUFD CBOE · FT VEST LADDERED DEEP BUFFER ETF
20.00
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 48.80 · ROC 0.27% · RS 0.13
24 Feb 2023
Entry
BUFG CBOE · FT VEST BUFFERED ALLOCATION GROWTH ETF
18.46
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 59.69 · ROC 0.37% · RS 0.69
24 Feb 2023
Entry
CHGX NASDAQ · STANCE SUSTAINABLE BETA ETF
17.57
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 42.74 · ROC 0.72% · RS 2.45
24 Feb 2023
Entry
CWI NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR MSCI ACWI EX-US ETF
22.53
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 57.58 · ROC 1.19% · RS 3.37
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DBL NYSE · DoubleLine Opportunistic Credit Fund
11.12
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 38.21 · ROC 0.25% · RS 0.70
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DEMZ NASDAQ · DEMOCRATIC LARGE CAP CORE ETF
24.42
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 58.24 · ROC 0.91% · RS 3.94
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DFAU NYSEARCA · DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST US CORE EQUITY MARKET ETF
27.17
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 61.31 · ROC 0.71% · RS 1.08
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DFAX NYSEARCA · DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST WORLD EX US CORE EQUITY 2 ETF
20.61
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 57.70 · ROC 1.26% · RS 3.75
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DFUS NYSEARCA · DIMENSIONAL U.S. EQUITY MARKET ETF
41.68
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 56.62 · ROC 0.60% · RS 0.54
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DJUL CBOE · FT VEST U.S. EQUITY DEEP BUFFER ETF - JULY
31.54
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 54.36 · ROC 0.43% · RS 0.65
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DLS NYSEARCA · WISDOMTREE TRUST INTL SMALLCAP DIVIDEND FD SBI USD0.001
53.38
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 59.61 · ROC 0.92% · RS 3.77
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DNL NYSEARCA · WISDOMTREE GLOBAL EX-U.S. QUALITY GROWTH FUND
31.77
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 65.99 · ROC 1.45% · RS 3.46
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DUSA CBOE · DAVIS SELECT U.S. EQUITY ETF
27.42
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 59.91 · ROC 0.94% · RS 1.52
24 Feb 2023
Entry
DWLD CBOE · DAVIS SELECT WORLDWIDE ETF
25.45
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 67.33 · ROC 1.81% · RS 6.81
24 Feb 2023
Entry
EBIZ NASDAQ · GLOBAL X E-COMMERCE ETF
17.54
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 55.99 · ROC 1.32% · RS 0.58
24 Feb 2023
Entry
EDIV NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR S&P EMERGING MARKETS DIVIDEND ETF
21.90
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 48.40 · ROC 0.43% · RS 1.35
24 Feb 2023
Entry
EJAN NYSEARCA · INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST EMERGING MARKETS POWR BUFFER ETF JANUARY
27.60
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 47.20 · ROC 0.60% · RS 1.60
24 Feb 2023
Entry
EMIF NASDAQ · ISHARES EMERGING MARKETS INFRASTRUCTURE ETF
18.50
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 25.77 · ROC 0.68% · RS 1.31
24 Feb 2023
Entry
EMMF NYSEARCA · WISDOMTREE TRUST EMERGING MARKETS MULTIFACTOR FUND
19.80
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 21.46 · ROC 0.71% · RS 0.06
24 Feb 2023
Entry
EMTL CBOE · SPDR DOUBLELINE EMERGING MARKETS FIXED INCOME ETF
34.26
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 54.46 · ROC 0.29% · RS 0.14
24 Feb 2023
Entry
EWT NYSEARCA · ISHARES INC MSCI TAIWAN ETF
37.30
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 51.31 · ROC 0.61% · RS 0.59
24 Feb 2023
Entry
FDEV CBOE · FIDELITY INTERNATIONAL MULTIFACTOR ETF
22.48
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 62.52 · ROC 0.88% · RS 3.43
24 Feb 2023
Entry
FKU NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST UNITED KINGDOM ALPHADEX FUND
30.15
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 65.48 · ROC 1.48% · RS 7.48
24 Feb 2023
Entry
FMB NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST MANAGED MUNICIPAL ETF
45.12
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 49.77 · ROC 0.07% · RS 1.70