Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85 Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322 Avg 379.0/yr · 31.6/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647 Stop 20.7% · Warning 79.3%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
2
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
26.31 4 signals · MA 68.64 · ROC 3.09% · RS 14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
6.04 4 signals · MA 79.97 · ROC 5.26% · RS 32.99

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
VXZ CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36 20% entry drawdown · -21.90%

Live Book

Current Holdings

28 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1021-1050 of 1322
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
24 Feb 2023
Entry
FMNY NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III NEW YORK MUNICIPAL HIGH INCOME ETF
23.51
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 53.71 · ROC 0.17% · RS 0.86
24 Feb 2023
Entry
FNDE NYSEARCA · SCHWAB FUNDAMENTAL EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY ETF
22.12
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 36.00 · ROC 0.95% · RS 1.32
24 Feb 2023
Entry
FPE NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III FIRST TR PFD SECS & INCOME ETF
14.50
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 78.12 · ROC 0.59% · RS 2.83
24 Feb 2023
Entry
FSMB NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III SHORT DURATION MANAGED MUNICIPAL ETF
17.89
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 39.22 · ROC 0.02% · RS 0.14
24 Feb 2023
Entry
FXED NYSE · SOUND ENHANCED FIXED INCOME ETF
14.36
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 80.01 · ROC 0.48% · RS 2.49
24 Feb 2023
Entry
GAL NYSEARCA · STATE STREET GLOBAL ALLOCATION ETF
34.76
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 47.93 · ROC 0.54% · RS 0.27
24 Feb 2023
Entry
GFGF NASDAQ · GURU FAVORITE STOCKS ETF
21.04
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 64.00 · ROC 0.63% · RS 3.53
24 Feb 2023
Entry
GLD NYSEARCA · SPDR GOLD TRUST GOLD SHARES NPV
168.35
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 19.72 · ROC 0.82% · RS 0.23
24 Feb 2023
Entry
GLDI NASDAQ · Credit Suisse AG Nassau Branch
88.93
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 18.16 · ROC 0.57% · RS 0.81
24 Feb 2023
Entry
GLDM NYSEARCA · WORLD GOLD TRUST SPDR GOLD MINISHARES TRUST(POST REV SPL)
35.95
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 19.98 · ROC 0.85% · RS 0.40
24 Feb 2023
Entry
GURU NYSEARCA · GLOBAL X FDS GLOBAL X HEDGE FD TOP EQ HLDGS IDX ETF
35.48
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 48.49 · ROC 0.65% · RS 0.58
24 Feb 2023
Entry
HDMV NYSEARCA · FIRST TR EXCHANGE-TRADED FD III HORIZON MANAGED VOLATILITY DEV INTL
24.62
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 49.02 · ROC 0.30% · RS 1.11
24 Feb 2023
Entry
HIX NYSE · Western Asset High Income Fund II Inc
3.43
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 81.44 · ROC 1.83% · RS 7.38
24 Feb 2023
Entry
HMOP NYSEARCA · HARTFORD FUNDS EXCHANGE TRADED TR MUNICIPAL OPPORTUNITIES ETF
33.81
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 46.27 · ROC 0.06% · RS 0.50
24 Feb 2023
Entry
HYLS NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST TACTICAL HIGH YIELD ETF
32.09
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 38.53 · ROC 0.28% · RS 1.19
24 Feb 2023
Entry
IAU NYSEARCA · ISHARES GOLD TRUST ISHARES NEW (POST REV SPLIT)
34.33
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 19.82 · ROC 0.83% · RS 0.29
24 Feb 2023
Entry
ICAP NYSEARCA · INFRASTRUCTURE CAPITAL EQUITY INCOME ETF
19.66
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 72.33 · ROC 0.71% · RS 1.23
24 Feb 2023
Entry
IMCG NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST MORNINGSTAR MID-CP GWTH ETF
55.89
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 59.67 · ROC 1.02% · RS 2.70
24 Feb 2023
Entry
INKM NYSEARCA · STATE STREET INCOME ALLOCATION ETF
25.80
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 49.03 · ROC 0.26% · RS 0.02
24 Feb 2023
Entry
ITAN NYSEARCA · EA SERIES TRUST SPARKLINE INTANGIBLE VALUE ETF
21.00
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 79.64 · ROC 0.85% · RS 1.53
24 Feb 2023
Entry
ITM CBOE · VANECK INTERMEDIATE MUNI ETF
41.45
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 40.40 · ROC 0.06% · RS 0.40
24 Feb 2023
Entry
IWO NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH ETF
226.47
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 54.55 · ROC 1.12% · RS 3.36
24 Feb 2023
Entry
IXUS NASDAQ · ISHARES CORE MSCI TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK ETF
53.76
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 55.71 · ROC 1.13% · RS 4.43
24 Feb 2023
Entry
JLS NYSE · Nuveen Mortgage and Income Fund
11.97
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 94.62 · ROC 1.00% · RS 3.04
24 Feb 2023
Entry
JMUB NYSEARCA · JPMORGAN MUNICIPAL ETF
44.29
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 48.54 · ROC 0.10% · RS 0.65
24 Feb 2023
Entry
JPIE NYSEARCA · JP MORGAN ETF TRUST INCOME ETF USD
37.23
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 34.24 · ROC 0.16% · RS 0.43
24 Feb 2023
Entry
JPIN NYSEARCA · JP MORGAN ETF TRUST DIVERSIFIED RETURN INTERNATIONAL EQUITY
43.86
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 57.23 · ROC 0.92% · RS 3.11
24 Feb 2023
Entry
JSCP NYSEARCA · JP MORGAN ETF TRUST SHORT DURATION CORE PLUS ETF USD
39.37
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 46.07 · ROC 0.10% · RS 0.26
24 Feb 2023
Entry
JSMD NASDAQ · JANUS HENDERSON SMALL/MID CAP GROWTH ALPHA ETF
55.70
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 64.45 · ROC 0.92% · RS 5.62
24 Feb 2023
Entry
JUNZ CBOE · TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (JUNE) ETF
21.59
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 52.59 · ROC 0.40% · RS 0.59