Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85 Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322 Avg 379.0/yr · 31.6/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647 Stop 20.7% · Warning 79.3%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
2
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
26.31 4 signals · MA 68.64 · ROC 3.09% · RS 14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
6.04 4 signals · MA 79.97 · ROC 5.26% · RS 32.99

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
VXZ CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36 20% entry drawdown · -21.90%

Live Book

Current Holdings

28 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1051-1080 of 1322
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
24 Feb 2023
Entry
JUSA NYSEARCA · JPMORGAN U.S. RESEARCH ENHANCED LARGE CAP ETF
44.84
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 50.74 · ROC 0.59% · RS 0.34
24 Feb 2023
Entry
KEMX NYSEARCA · KRANESHARES TRUST MSCI EMERGING MARKETS EX CHINA INDEX ETF
22.76
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 31.91 · ROC 1.12% · RS 0.34
24 Feb 2023
Entry
LOUP NYSEARCA · INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST DEEPWATER FRONTIER TECH ETF
33.70
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 65.55 · ROC 1.51% · RS 1.57
24 Feb 2023
Entry
MAYZ CBOE · TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (MAY) ETF
22.16
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 48.98 · ROC 0.41% · RS 0.80
24 Feb 2023
Entry
MFEM NYSEARCA · PIMCO EQUITY SERIES RAFI DYNMC MULT FACTR EMRNG MKTS EQT ETF
15.54
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 26.59 · ROC 0.80% · RS 0.34
24 Feb 2023
Entry
MIDU NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY MID CAP BULL 3X ETF
40.54
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 63.89 · ROC 2.91% · RS 3.80
24 Feb 2023
Entry
MIN NYSE · MFS Intermediate Income Trust
2.08
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 90.83 · ROC 0.40% · RS 0.77
24 Feb 2023
Entry
MINO NYSEARCA · PIMCO ETF TRUST PIMCO MUNI INCOME OPPORTNS ACTIVE ETF
38.52
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 49.21 · ROC 0.11% · RS 0.58
24 Feb 2023
Entry
MMIT NYSEARCA · NYLI MACKAY MUNI INTERMEDIATE ETF
21.38
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 50.07 · ROC 0.10% · RS 0.56
24 Feb 2023
Entry
MSMR CBOE · MCELHENNY SHEFFIELD MANAGED RISK ETF
20.80
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 46.93 · ROC 0.38% · RS 0.56
24 Feb 2023
Entry
MUST NYSEARCA · COLUMBIA ETF TR I MULTI SECTOR MUNICIPAL INCOME ETF
18.26
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 51.50 · ROC 0.11% · RS 0.60
24 Feb 2023
Entry
NXTG NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST INDXX NEXTG ETF
61.82
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 63.64 · ROC 0.41% · RS 2.73
24 Feb 2023
Entry
NZAC NASDAQ · SPDR MSCI ACWI CLIMATE PARIS ALIGNED ETF
25.57
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 51.33 · ROC 0.55% · RS 1.85
24 Feb 2023
Entry
OUNZ NYSEARCA · VANECK MERK GOLD ETF
17.55
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 19.84 · ROC 0.84% · RS 0.29
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PAI NYSE · Western Asset Investment Grade Income Fund Inc
10.21
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 68.65 · ROC 0.31% · RS 0.92
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PCEF NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II CEF INCOME COMPOSITE ETF
14.12
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 66.98 · ROC 0.64% · RS 1.58
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PDI NYSE · PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund
12.18
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 79.14 · ROC 1.16% · RS 1.97
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PEJ NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR LEISURE AND ENTERTAINMENT ETF
39.74
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 53.89 · ROC 1.14% · RS 1.16
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PEX CBOE · ProShares Global Listed Private Equity ETF
19.02
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 68.21 · ROC 0.64% · RS 2.34
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PFI NASDAQ · INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT FINANCIAL MOMENTUM ETF
40.52
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 38.93 · ROC 0.94% · RS 2.81
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PFN NYSE · Pimco Income Strategy Fund II
4.97
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 69.99 · ROC 0.77% · RS 1.04
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PGJ NASDAQ · INVESCO GOLDEN DRAGON CHINA ETF
25.41
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 42.37 · ROC 0.05% · RS 3.04
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PMAY CBOE · Innovator U.S. Equity Power Buffer ETF - May
28.51
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 55.52 · ROC 0.34% · RS 0.22
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PMM NYSE · Putnam Managed Municipal Income Trust.
5.71
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 79.57 · ROC 0.31% · RS 5.60
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PPT NYSE · Putnam Premier Income Trust
2.75
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 65.25 · ROC 0.22% · RS 1.16
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PQDI NYSE · PRINCIPAL SPECTRUM TAX-ADVANTAGED DIVIDEND ACTIVE ETF
15.63
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 80.44 · ROC 0.35% · RS 2.31
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PREF NYSEARCA · PRINCIPAL EXCHANGE-TRADED FDS SPECTRUM PFD SECS ACTIVE ETF
14.97
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 72.76 · ROC 0.49% · RS 2.04
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PSP NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR GLOBAL LISTED PRIVATE EQUTY ETF POST R/S
42.98
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 64.63 · ROC 0.83% · RS 0.96
24 Feb 2023
Entry
PTY NYSE · PIMCO Corporate & Income Opportunity Fund
9.33
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 93.07 · ROC 2.02% · RS 4.63
24 Feb 2023
Entry
QDPL NYSEARCA · PACER FDS TR METAURUS US LRG CAP DIV MUTIPLER 400 ETF
24.47
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 59.63 · ROC 0.59% · RS 0.92