Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 3 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85 Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322 Avg 379.0/yr · 31.6/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647 Stop 20.7% · Warning 79.3%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

3 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
2
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
26.31 4 signals · MA 68.64 · ROC 3.09% · RS 14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
6.04 4 signals · MA 79.97 · ROC 5.26% · RS 32.99

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
VXZ CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36 20% entry drawdown · -21.90%

Live Book

Current Holdings

28 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1081-1110 of 1322
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
24 Feb 2023
Entry
QINT NYSEARCA · AMERICAN CENTURY ETF TRUST QUALITY DIVERSIFIED INTERNATIONAL ETF
37.91
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 73.46 · ROC 1.32% · RS 5.54
24 Feb 2023
Entry
QLVD NYSEARCA · FLEXSHARES TRUST DEVELOPED MKTS EX-US QUALITY LOW VOL IDX
22.00
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 55.81 · ROC 0.66% · RS 2.66
24 Feb 2023
Entry
QQQJ NASDAQ · INVESCO NASDAQ NEXT GEN 100 ETF
24.56
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 64.87 · ROC 0.84% · RS 2.51
24 Feb 2023
Entry
QVML NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P 500 QVM MULTI FACTOR ETF
22.77
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 53.70 · ROC 0.52% · RS 0.16
24 Feb 2023
Entry
RGT NYSE · Royce Global Value Trust Inc
8.68
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 60.38 · ROC 0.78% · RS 0.13
24 Feb 2023
Entry
RNEM NASDAQ · EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY SELECT ETF
39.84
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 31.80 · ROC 0.63% · RS 1.44
24 Feb 2023
Entry
ROAM NYSEARCA · LATTICE STRATEGIES TR HARTFORD MULTIFACTOR EMERGING MARKTS ETF
17.59
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 34.49 · ROC 0.83% · RS 1.24
24 Feb 2023
Entry
SBND NYSEARCA · COLUMBIA ETF TR I SHORT DURATION BD ETF
15.45
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 29.13 · ROC 0.07% · RS 0.07
24 Feb 2023
Entry
SGOL NYSEARCA · ABRDN GOLD ETF TR ABRDN PHYSICAL GOLD SHARES ETF
17.34
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 19.81 · ROC 0.84% · RS 0.34
24 Feb 2023
Entry
SIFI NYSEARCA · HARBOR ARES SYSTEMATIC MULTI-SECTOR INCOME ETF
34.92
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 33.51 · ROC 0.25% · RS 0.77
24 Feb 2023
Entry
SIXJ CBOE · ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY 6 MONTH BUFFER10 JAN/JUL ETF
23.15
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 45.27 · ROC 0.32% · RS 0.19
24 Feb 2023
Entry
SMCP NYSEARCA · SMART MID CAP ETF
25.04
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 48.52 · ROC 0.83% · RS 0.64
24 Feb 2023
Entry
SOCL NASDAQ · GLOBAL X SOCIAL MEDIA ETF
33.19
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 61.09 · ROC 1.09% · RS 1.98
24 Feb 2023
Entry
STOT CBOE · SPDR DOUBLELINE SHORT DURATION TOTAL RETURN TACTICAL ETF
39.61
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 71.89 · ROC 0.22% · RS 1.07
24 Feb 2023
Entry
SWZ NYSE · Swiss Helvetia Fund Inc
4.52
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 53.37 · ROC 0.89% · RS 0.50
24 Feb 2023
Entry
TINT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SMART MATERIALS ETF
31.21
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 94.45 · ROC 1.19% · RS 5.12
24 Feb 2023
Entry
TMFX CBOE · MOTLEY FOOL NEXT INDEX ETF
15.18
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 71.82 · ROC 0.95% · RS 1.40
24 Feb 2023
Entry
TPIF NYSEARCA · TIMOTHY PLAN TIMOTHY PLAN INTERNATIONAL ETF
21.95
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 59.29 · ROC 1.10% · RS 3.03
24 Feb 2023
Entry
UEVM NASDAQ · VICTORYSHARES EMERGING MARKETS VALUE MOMENTUM ETF FORMERLY VICTORYSHARES USAA MSCI EMERGING MARKETS VALUE MOMENTUM ETF
34.75
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 26.84 · ROC 0.51% · RS 1.32
24 Feb 2023
Entry
UMDD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRAPRO MIDCAP400
20.61
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 63.73 · ROC 2.85% · RS 3.44
24 Feb 2023
Entry
UMMA NASDAQ · WAHED DOW JONES ISLAMIC WORLD ETF
19.36
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 59.17 · ROC 1.15% · RS 3.85
24 Feb 2023
Entry
USEP CBOE · Innovator U.S. Equity Ultra Buffer ETF - September
26.87
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 59.63 · ROC 0.35% · RS 0.49
24 Feb 2023
Entry
USXF NASDAQ · ISHARES ESG ADVANCED MSCI USA ETF
30.88
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 58.55 · ROC 0.77% · RS 3.65
24 Feb 2023
Entry
VEU NYSEARCA · VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX FUND INC FTSE ALL-WORLD EX-US ETF
46.88
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 55.75 · ROC 1.13% · RS 3.13
24 Feb 2023
Entry
VIGI NASDAQ · VANGUARD INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND APPRECIATION INDEX FUND ETF SHARES
66.16
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 53.80 · ROC 0.75% · RS 3.25
24 Feb 2023
Entry
VTWG NASDAQ · VANGUARD RUSSELL 2000 GROWTH INDEX FUND ETF SHARES
164.64
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 54.69 · ROC 1.12% · RS 4.90
24 Feb 2023
Entry
VXUS NASDAQ · VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND ETF SHARES
48.31
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 55.88 · ROC 1.10% · RS 4.34
24 Feb 2023
Entry
XRT NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
63.70
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 59.34 · ROC 1.84% · RS 2.37
24 Feb 2023
Entry
XT NASDAQ · ISHARES EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES ETF
46.00
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 56.45 · ROC 0.67% · RS 1.66
24 Feb 2023
Entry
YYY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY CEF HIGH INCOME ETF
8.12
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 65.14 · ROC 0.55% · RS 0.61