Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
233.47
Total Return
133.47%
CAGR
27.35% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+6.46%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.81 Sortino 3.02
Current Holdings
27
Transactions
1323 Avg 377.2/yr · 31.4/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
648 Stop 20.8% · Warning 79.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
0
No new entries last week.

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
69.12 20% entry drawdown · -24.91%

Live Book

Current Holdings

27 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
33.27
13.48%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.89
60.72%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
25.29
-3.88%
4
71.09
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
5.56
-7.95%
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
17.48
-5.92%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
59.07
5.42%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
24.12
-6.13%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.71
3.30%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
22.83
5.27%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
16.03
-11.88%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
18.20
34.14%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.76
0.85%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.49
-10.02%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
33.28
16.12%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.19
-4.76%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
57.82
-13.73%
4
73.50
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.23
-12.17%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
49.00
-9.20%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.14
-5.07%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.54
-7.87%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.83
0.28%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.54
-13.97%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
18.08
-0.35%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
23.72
3.81%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
19.58
-9.92%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
14.59
1.32%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
23.09
3.96%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1171-1200 of 1323
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
10 Feb 2023
Entry
OVF CBOE · OVERLAY SHARES FOREIGN EQUITY ETF
17.97
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 80.57 · ROC 0.77% · RS 0.47
10 Feb 2023
Entry
PDN NYSEARCA · INVESCO RAFI DEVELOPED MARKETS EX-U.S. SMALL-MID ETF
28.08
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 81.79 · ROC 1.33% · RS 1.53
10 Feb 2023
Entry
RFEU NASDAQ · First Trust RiverFront Dynamic Europe ETF
52.09
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 69.28 · ROC 0.79% · RS 0.54
10 Feb 2023
Entry
ROBO NYSEARCA · EXCHANGE TRADED CONCEPTS TRUST ROBO GLOBAL ROBOTICS & AUTO INDX ETF
52.43
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 81.31 · ROC 1.96% · RS 4.95
10 Feb 2023
Entry
SCHC NYSEARCA · SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR INTL SMALL CAP EQUITY ETF
30.52
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 85.28 · ROC 1.50% · RS 1.71
10 Feb 2023
Entry
SCHY NYSEARCA · SCHWAB STRATEGIC TR INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EQUITY ETF
20.50
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 90.01 · ROC 1.16% · RS 1.18
10 Feb 2023
Entry
SDG NASDAQ · iShares MSCI Global Sustainable Development Goals ETF
75.66
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 48.89 · ROC 0.40% · RS 1.05
10 Feb 2023
Entry
TLTE NYSEARCA · FLEXSHARES TRUST MORNINGSTAR EMERG MKTS FACTOR TILT IDX
44.00
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 83.34 · ROC 1.12% · RS 0.34
10 Feb 2023
Entry
TMFS CBOE · MOTLEY FOOL SMALL-CAP GROWTH ETF
26.85
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 72.42 · ROC 1.67% · RS 1.32
10 Feb 2023
Entry
VSGX CBOE · VANGUARD ESG INTERNATIONAL STOCK ETF ETF SHARES
47.25
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 95.79 · ROC 1.30% · RS 2.43
10 Feb 2023
Entry
VSLU NYSEARCA · ETF OPPORTUNITIES TR APPLIED FINANCE VALUATION LARGE CAP ETF
24.62
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 63.66 · ROC 0.85% · RS 0.68
10 Feb 2023
Entry
VSS NYSEARCA · VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX FUND INC FTSE ALL-WORLD EX USA SMALL CAP ETF
99.06
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 82.91 · ROC 1.31% · RS 0.97
10 Feb 2023
Entry
XDSQ CBOE · Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated ETF - Quarterly
25.56
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 91.46 · ROC 1.18% · RS 2.62
3 Feb 2023
Entry
AVES NYSEARCA · AMERICAN CENTURY ETF TRUST AVANTIS EMERGING MKTS VALUE ETF USD
38.97
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 92.86 · ROC 1.10% · RS 0.20
3 Feb 2023
Entry
BBC NYSEARCA · VIRTUS BIOTECH CLINICAL TRIALS ETF
27.34
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 47.68 · ROC 2.76% · RS 9.08
3 Feb 2023
Entry
BNKU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG BANKS 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
33.32
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 37.17 · ROC 3.75% · RS 4.54
3 Feb 2023
Entry
CTEC NASDAQ · GLOBAL X CLEANTECH ETF
80.84
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 38.00 · ROC 2.31% · RS 7.48
3 Feb 2023
Entry
EDD NYSE · Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund Inc
3.43
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 94.25 · ROC 1.18% · RS 3.94
3 Feb 2023
Entry
EFO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA MSCI EAFE
38.05
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 93.80 · ROC 2.90% · RS 8.16
3 Feb 2023
Entry
EMF NYSE · Templeton Emerging Markets Fund
10.06
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 91.25 · ROC 2.09% · RS 7.32
3 Feb 2023
Entry
FDT NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST DEVELOPED MARKETS EX-US ALPHADEX FUND
45.71
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 76.09 · ROC 1.13% · RS 1.56
3 Feb 2023
Entry
IMFL CBOE · INVESCO INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED DYNAMIC MULTIFACTOR ETF
20.25
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 96.19 · ROC 1.67% · RS 5.06
3 Feb 2023
Entry
JIG NYSEARCA · JP MORGAN ETF TRUST INTERNATIONAL GROWTH ETF
54.75
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 91.36 · ROC 1.59% · RS 3.53
3 Feb 2023
Entry
JOF NYSE · Japan Smaller Capitalization Fund Inc
5.78
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 77.39 · ROC 1.11% · RS 2.44
3 Feb 2023
Entry
KOLD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II ULTRASHORT BLOOMBERG NATURAL GAS(R/S)
33.76
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 97.35 · ROC 11.51% · RS 86.27
3 Feb 2023
Entry
MMT NYSE · MFS Multimarket Income Trust
3.60
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 93.06 · ROC 1.48% · RS 3.42
3 Feb 2023
Entry
MSD NYSE · Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund Inc
4.90
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 92.94 · ROC 1.16% · RS 1.03
3 Feb 2023
Entry
NMI NYSE · Nuveen Municipal Income Fund
8.36
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 97.75 · ROC 1.04% · RS 1.68
3 Feb 2023
Entry
PDO NYSE · PIMCO Dynamic Income Opportunities Fund
9.66
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 76.67 · ROC 1.60% · RS 3.67
3 Feb 2023
Entry
PDP NASDAQ · INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT MOMENTUM ETF
75.90
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 21.30 · ROC 1.19% · RS 0.94