Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
233.47
Total Return
133.47%
CAGR
27.35% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+6.46%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.81 Sortino 3.02
Current Holdings
27
Transactions
1323 Avg 377.2/yr · 31.4/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
648 Stop 20.8% · Warning 79.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
0
No new entries last week.

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
69.12 20% entry drawdown · -24.91%

Live Book

Current Holdings

27 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
33.27
13.48%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.89
60.72%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
25.29
-3.88%
4
71.09
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
5.56
-7.95%
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
17.48
-5.92%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
59.07
5.42%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
24.12
-6.13%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.71
3.30%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
22.83
5.27%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
16.03
-11.88%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
18.20
34.14%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.76
0.85%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.49
-10.02%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
33.28
16.12%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.19
-4.76%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
57.82
-13.73%
4
73.50
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.23
-12.17%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
49.00
-9.20%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.14
-5.07%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.54
-7.87%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.83
0.28%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.54
-13.97%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
18.08
-0.35%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
23.72
3.81%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
19.58
-9.92%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
14.59
1.32%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
23.09
3.96%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1201-1230 of 1323
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
3 Feb 2023
Entry
PIZ NASDAQ · INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT DEVELOPED MARKETS MOMENTUM ETF
28.18
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 73.45 · ROC 1.17% · RS 1.39
3 Feb 2023
Exit
REW NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOGY (P/S)
106.22
20% entry drawdown
-20.85%
Entry 13 Jan 2023 134.19
3 Feb 2023
Entry
RFDI NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST RIVERFRONT DYNAMIC DEVELOPED INTERNATIONAL ETF
50.04
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 82.48 · ROC 1.03% · RS 0.68
3 Feb 2023
Entry
RFEM NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST RIVERFRONT DYNAMIC EMERGING MARKETS ETF
50.05
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 87.31 · ROC 1.25% · RS 1.23
3 Feb 2023
Entry
SCZ NASDAQ · ISHARES MSCI EAFE SMALL-CAP ETF
54.62
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 85.95 · ROC 1.45% · RS 3.69
27 Jan 2023
Entry
BBJP CBOE · JPMORGAN BETABUILDERS JAPAN ETF
43.33
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 61.18 · ROC 0.95% · RS 4.45
27 Jan 2023
Entry
EFAD CBOE · PROSHARES MSCI EAFE DIVIDEND GROWERS ETF
34.83
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 78.01 · ROC 1.13% · RS 3.47
27 Jan 2023
Entry
EHI NYSE · Western Asset Global High Income Fund Inc
5.01
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 59.19 · ROC 0.99% · RS 5.05
27 Jan 2023
Entry
EUDV CBOE · PROSHARES MSCI EUROPE DIVIDEND GROWERS
40.95
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 78.86 · ROC 1.03% · RS 2.63
27 Jan 2023
Entry
EURL NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY FTSE EUROPE BULL 3X ETF
20.24
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 88.35 · ROC 3.54% · RS 13.41
27 Jan 2023
Entry
EWJ NYSEARCA · ISHARES INC MSCI JAPAN ETF NEW
53.51
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 61.44 · ROC 0.95% · RS 4.47
27 Jan 2023
Entry
FAPR CBOE · FT VEST U.S. EQUITY BUFFER ETF - APRIL
30.33
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 39.62 · ROC 0.64% · RS 0.12
27 Jan 2023
Entry
FDEM CBOE · FIDELITY EMERGING MARKETS MULTIFACTOR ETF
19.99
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 71.03 · ROC 0.65% · RS 3.25
27 Jan 2023
Entry
FGM NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST GERMANY ALPHADEX FUND
37.77
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 91.76 · ROC 1.62% · RS 12.21
27 Jan 2023
Entry
FJP NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST JAPAN ALPHADEX FUND
40.63
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 59.81 · ROC 0.63% · RS 5.96
27 Jan 2023
Entry
FPXE NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST IPOX EUROPE EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES ETF
20.30
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 61.64 · ROC 1.04% · RS 4.85
27 Jan 2023
Entry
GOEX NYSEARCA · GLOBAL X FDS GOLD EXPLORERS ETF
26.87
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 78.07 · ROC 1.70% · RS 8.03
27 Jan 2023
Entry
HIO NYSE · Western Asset High Income Opportunity Fund Inc
2.83
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 70.58 · ROC 0.98% · RS 2.14
27 Jan 2023
Entry
NTSI NYSEARCA · WISDOMTREE TRUST INTL EFFICIENT CORE FD
31.44
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 90.21 · ROC 1.32% · RS 5.51
27 Jan 2023
Entry
NUGT NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 2X ETF
41.56
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 87.12 · ROC 0.56% · RS 2.78
27 Jan 2023
Entry
QAI NYSEARCA · NYLI HEDGE MULTI-STRATEGY TRACKER ETF
27.21
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 74.66 · ROC 0.42% · RS 0.44
27 Jan 2023
Entry
RING NASDAQ · ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL GOLD MINERS ETF
24.08
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 86.35 · ROC 1.09% · RS 10.35
27 Jan 2023
Entry
SGDJ NYSEARCA · SPROTT ETF TR JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
27.14
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 77.58 · ROC 0.96% · RS 2.34
27 Jan 2023
Entry
TEI NYSE · Templeton Emerging Markets Income Fund Inc
3.93
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 96.44 · ROC 1.36% · RS 9.31
27 Jan 2023
Entry
UDN NYSEARCA · INVESCO DB US DLR INDEX TR BEARISH FD ETF
16.48
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 97.33 · ROC 0.28% · RS 0.97
27 Jan 2023
Entry
ULE NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRA EURO
11.57
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 96.00 · ROC 0.34% · RS 3.11
20 Jan 2023
Entry
ACLC NYSEARCA · AMERICAN CENTURY LARGE CAP EQUITY ETF
48.41
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 6.88 · ROC 0.43% · RS 1.24
20 Jan 2023
Entry
ACVF NYSEARCA · ETF OPPORTUNITIES TR AMERN CONSERVATIVE VALUES ETF
29.89
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 16.89 · ROC 0.51% · RS 1.61
20 Jan 2023
Entry
BKHY NYSEARCA · BNY MELLON HIGH YIELD ETF
36.57
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 73.57 · ROC 0.45% · RS 3.14
20 Jan 2023
Entry
BSEA NYSEARCA · ETFMG Breakwave Sea Decarbonization Tech ETF
22.20
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 44.99 · ROC 0.61% · RS 5.85