Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
233.47
Total Return
133.47%
CAGR
27.35% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+6.46%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.81 Sortino 3.02
Current Holdings
27
Transactions
1323 Avg 377.2/yr · 31.4/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
648 Stop 20.8% · Warning 79.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
0
No new entries last week.

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
69.12 20% entry drawdown · -24.91%

Live Book

Current Holdings

27 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
33.27
13.48%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.89
60.72%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
25.29
-3.88%
4
71.09
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
5.56
-7.95%
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
17.48
-5.92%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
59.07
5.42%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
24.12
-6.13%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.71
3.30%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
22.83
5.27%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
16.03
-11.88%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
18.20
34.14%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.76
0.85%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.49
-10.02%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
33.28
16.12%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.19
-4.76%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
57.82
-13.73%
4
73.50
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.23
-12.17%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
49.00
-9.20%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.14
-5.07%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.54
-7.87%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.83
0.28%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.54
-13.97%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
18.08
-0.35%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
23.72
3.81%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
19.58
-9.92%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
14.59
1.32%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
23.09
3.96%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1231-1260 of 1323
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
20 Jan 2023
Entry
DMXF NASDAQ · ISHARES ESG ADVANCED MSCI EAFE ETF
52.54
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 79.46 · ROC 0.94% · RS 14.96
20 Jan 2023
Entry
DSEP CBOE · FT VEST U.S. EQUITY DEEP BUFFER ETF - SEPTEMBER
31.28
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 19.68 · ROC 0.16% · RS 1.75
20 Jan 2023
Entry
EFG CBOE · ISHARES MSCI EAFE GROWTH ETF
85.32
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 62.98 · ROC 0.97% · RS 8.18
20 Jan 2023
Entry
ELD NYSEARCA · WISDOMTREE TRUST EMERGING MKTS LOCAL DEBT FD ETF
22.48
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 90.29 · ROC 0.64% · RS 6.52
20 Jan 2023
Entry
EMBD NYSEARCA · GLOBAL X FDS EMERGING MKTS BD ETF
18.36
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 77.92 · ROC 0.38% · RS 4.23
20 Jan 2023
Entry
EMD NYSE · Western Asset Emerging Markets Debt Fund Inc
6.66
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 83.19 · ROC 1.14% · RS 8.90
20 Jan 2023
Entry
EMLC NYSEARCA · VANECK ETF TR VANECK J. P. MORGAN EM LOCAL CURRENCY BO
20.50
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 95.80 · ROC 0.52% · RS 5.33
20 Jan 2023
Entry
EPOL NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST MSCI POLAND ETF
14.44
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 95.18 · ROC 1.56% · RS 12.85
20 Jan 2023
Entry
ESMV NASDAQ · ISHARES ESG MSCI USA MIN VOL FACTOR ETF
21.71
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 29.71 · ROC 0.78% · RS 8.10
20 Jan 2023
Entry
EWD NYSEARCA · ISHARES INC MSCI SWEDEN ETF
32.16
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 53.56 · ROC 0.62% · RS 8.00
20 Jan 2023
Entry
FDHY NYSEARCA · FIDELITY ENHANCED HIGH YIELD ETF
37.79
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 62.49 · ROC 0.40% · RS 2.42
20 Jan 2023
Entry
FICS NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED CAPITAL STRENGTH ETF
29.28
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 56.52 · ROC 0.62% · RS 11.51
20 Jan 2023
Entry
FLJP NYSEARCA · FRANKLIN TEMPLETON ETF TR FTSE JAPAN ETF
22.37
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 37.79 · ROC 0.51% · RS 5.45
20 Jan 2023
Entry
FXE NYSEARCA · INVESCO CCY SHS EURO TR EURO SHS ETF
95.26
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 96.99 · ROC 0.21% · RS 4.37
20 Jan 2023
Entry
GDXJ NYSEARCA · VANECK ETF TR VANECK JUNIOR GOLD MINERS ETF
38.14
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 67.22 · ROC 0.32% · RS 10.97
20 Jan 2023
Entry
GHYB NYSEARCA · GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST ACCESS HIGH YIELD CORPORATE BD ETF
34.52
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 66.27 · ROC 0.39% · RS 2.56
20 Jan 2023
Entry
GOAU NYSEARCA · ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS US GLOBAL GO GOLD & PRECUS METL MINE ETF
17.11
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 78.94 · ROC 0.80% · RS 12.80
20 Jan 2023
Entry
GSJY NYSEARCA · GOLDMAN SACHS ETF TRUST ACTIVEBETA JAPAN EQUITY ETF
29.89
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 37.25 · ROC 0.48% · RS 5.07
20 Jan 2023
Entry
HYBB NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST BB RTD CORP BD ETF
36.86
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 72.64 · ROC 0.41% · RS 2.65
20 Jan 2023
Entry
IBHG CBOE · ISHARES IBONDS 2027 TERM HIGH YIELD AND INCOME ETF
17.68
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 87.57 · ROC 0.52% · RS 3.53
20 Jan 2023
Entry
IMTM NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST MSCI INTL MOMENTUM FACTOR ETF
28.95
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 53.80 · ROC 0.50% · RS 5.86
20 Jan 2023
Entry
IWDL NYSE · UBS AG London Branch
29.45
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 32.98 · ROC 0.57% · RS 1.00
20 Jan 2023
Entry
JANT CBOE · ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER10 JAN ETF
26.05
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 5.61 · ROC 0.40% · RS 2.15
20 Jan 2023
Entry
JANZ CBOE · TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (JANUARY) ETF
24.71
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 0.09 · ROC 0.35% · RS 1.39
20 Jan 2023
Entry
JETS NYSEARCA · ETF SERIES SOLUTIONS US GLOBAL JETS ETF
20.08
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 40.93 · ROC 0.78% · RS 9.68
20 Jan 2023
Entry
JPXN NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST JPX-NIKKEI 400 ETF
56.52
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 42.41 · ROC 0.61% · RS 6.02
20 Jan 2023
Entry
JSTC NYSEARCA · TIDAL ETF TRUST ADASINA SOCIAL JUSTICE ALL CAP GBL ETF
15.23
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 63.36 · ROC 0.68% · RS 4.90
20 Jan 2023
Entry
LCTD NYSEARCA · ISHARES WORLD EX U.S. CARBON TRANSITION READINESS AWARE ACTIVE ETF
36.77
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 73.35 · ROC 0.62% · RS 7.24
20 Jan 2023
Entry
MAKX NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST S&P KENSHO SMART FACTORIES ETF
32.54
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals MA 14.62 · ROC 0.69% · RS 4.48
20 Jan 2023
Entry
OALC NYSEARCA · UNIFIED SERIES TRUST ONEASCENT LARGE CAP CORE ETF
21.01
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 30.60 · ROC 0.51% · RS 3.34