Signal Validation

US ETF Trend Performance Index

US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.

US ETFs
Latest week 10 Jul 2026 Initial value 100.00
Index Value
233.47
Total Return
133.47%
CAGR
27.35% Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+6.46%/yr Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.81 Sortino 3.02
Current Holdings
27
Transactions
1323 Avg 377.2/yr · 31.4/mo · 7.3/wk
Exit Mix
648 Stop 20.8% · Warning 79.2%

Method

How The Index Works

The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.

01

Universe

Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.

02

Entry Rule

An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.

03

Exit Rule

A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.

04

Return Math

Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.

Assumptions
  • Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
  • New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
  • Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
  • Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
  • Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.

Weekly Index

Cumulative Value

Equal-weighted active positions

Latest Week

Positions In And Out

10 Jul 2026

New Positions In

Entries at weekly close
0
No new entries last week.

Positions Out

Closed at weekly close
1
ETHD NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
69.12 20% entry drawdown · -24.91%

Live Book

Current Holdings

27 open
Ticker Entry Last Close Return Signals Activity ROC RS
ACES NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
33.27
13.48%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.89
60.72%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
25.29
-3.88%
4
71.09
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
5.56
-7.95%
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
17.48
-5.92%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
59.07
5.42%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
24.12
-6.13%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
EUO NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.71
3.30%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
22.83
5.27%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
16.03
-11.88%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
18.20
34.14%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.76
0.85%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.49
-10.02%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
33.28
16.12%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.19
-4.76%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
57.82
-13.73%
4
73.50
6.86%
49.97
SEF NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.23
-12.17%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
49.00
-9.20%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.14
-5.07%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.54
-7.87%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.83
0.28%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.54
-13.97%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
18.08
-0.35%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
23.72
3.81%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
19.58
-9.92%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
14.59
1.32%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
23.09
3.96%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62

Ledger

Transaction History

Showing 1261-1290 of 1323
Date Action Ticker Price Reason Return Qualifiers
20 Jan 2023
Entry
PCY NYSEARCA · INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II EMERGING MKTS SOVEREIGN DEBT ETF
15.94
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 73.84 · ROC 0.48% · RS 4.89
20 Jan 2023
Entry
PEZ NASDAQ · INVESCO DORSEY WRIGHT CONSUMER CYCLICALS MOMENTUM ETF
65.80
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 5.12 · ROC 0.24% · RS 4.90
20 Jan 2023
Entry
SHE NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR MSCI USA GENDER DIVERSITY ETF
77.80
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 9.29 · ROC 0.48% · RS 0.75
20 Jan 2023
Entry
SIL NYSEARCA · GLOBAL X FDS GLOBAL X SILVER MINERS ETF (POST REV SPL
29.89
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 45.51 · ROC 0.25% · RS 7.83
20 Jan 2023
Entry
SILJ NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY ETF TRUST JUNIOR SILVER MINERS ETF
10.48
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 35.36 · ROC 0.24% · RS 5.72
20 Jan 2023
Entry
SLVP CBOE · ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL SILVER AND METALS MINERS ETF
11.15
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 39.98 · ROC 0.10% · RS 6.65
20 Jan 2023
Entry
SMIG NYSEARCA · BAHL & GAYNOR SMALL/MID CAP INCOME GROWTH ETF
21.84
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 23.30 · ROC 0.61% · RS 2.93
20 Jan 2023
Entry
THRO NYSEARCA · ISHARES U.S. THEMATIC ROTATION ACTIVE ETF
21.13
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 8.24 · ROC 0.57% · RS 1.98
13 Jan 2023
Entry
AMOM NYSEARCA · EXCHANGE LISTED FUNDS TRUST RAFT AI ENHANCED US LRG CAP MOMNTUM ETF
27.35
Trend inclusion
-
8 signals MA 4.31 · ROC 0.14% · RS 3.30
13 Jan 2023
Entry
APRZ CBOE · TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (APRIL) ETF
23.67
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 12.23 · ROC 0.29% · RS 2.77
13 Jan 2023
Entry
CEFA NASDAQ · GLOBAL X S&P CATHOLIC VALUES DEVELOPED EX-U.S. ETF
25.37
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 58.39 · ROC 0.45% · RS 14.86
13 Jan 2023
Entry
DFAC NYSEARCA · DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST US CORE EQUITY 2 ETF
24.57
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 3.92 · ROC 0.20% · RS 2.80
13 Jan 2023
Entry
DFJ NYSEARCA · WISDOMTREE TRUST JAPAN SMALLCAP DIVIDEND FD SBI USD0.001
59.56
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 56.18 · ROC 0.73% · RS 5.75
13 Jan 2023
Entry
ENZL NASDAQ · ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND ETF
46.50
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 63.92 · ROC 0.99% · RS 13.31
13 Jan 2023
Entry
FFSM CBOE · FIDELITY FUNDAMENTAL SMALL-MID CAP ETF
21.07
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 15.59 · ROC 0.28% · RS 4.43
13 Jan 2023
Entry
IAPR NYSEARCA · INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED POWER BUFFER ETF
24.49
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 71.56 · ROC 0.35% · RS 4.27
13 Jan 2023
Entry
IMOM NASDAQ · ALPHA ARCHITECT INTERNATIONAL QUANTITATIVE MOMENTUM ETF
23.29
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 31.45 · ROC 0.06% · RS 10.64
13 Jan 2023
Entry
KJUL CBOE · Innovator U.S. Small Cap Power Buffer ETF - July
25.25
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 11.86 · ROC 0.09% · RS 3.51
13 Jan 2023
Entry
LEXI NASDAQ · ALEXIS PRACTICAL TACTICAL ETF
22.98
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 3.34 · ROC 0.05% · RS 9.54
13 Jan 2023
Entry
MARZ CBOE · TRUESHARES STRUCTURED OUTCOME (MARCH) ETF
21.95
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 14.86 · ROC 0.28% · RS 2.09
13 Jan 2023
Entry
PSCJ CBOE · PACER SWAN SOS CONSERVATIVE (JULY) ETF
20.11
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 3.00 · ROC 0.13% · RS 1.38
13 Jan 2023
Entry
QID NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT QQQ (POST REV SPLIT)
98.31
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 43.02 · ROC 0.42% · RS 2.85
13 Jan 2023
Entry
REW NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT TECHNOLOGY (P/S)
134.19
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 33.47 · ROC 0.59% · RS 2.59
13 Jan 2023
Entry
SCJ NYSEARCA · ISHARES INC MSCI JAPAN SMALL-CAP ETF
60.81
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 38.40 · ROC 0.47% · RS 3.48
13 Jan 2023
Entry
XTJL CBOE · Innovator U.S. Equity Accelerated Plus ETF - July
24.55
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 14.58 · ROC 0.06% · RS 1.65
13 Jan 2023
Entry
YMAR CBOE · FT VEST INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MODERATE BUFFER ETF - MARCH
19.65
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 72.54 · ROC 0.45% · RS 5.67
13 Jan 2023
Entry
ZECP CBOE · ZACKS EARNINGS CONSISTENT PORTFOLIO ETF
23.18
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 3.36 · ROC 0.30% · RS 1.56
6 Jan 2023
Entry
AGQ NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRA SILVER
31.57
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals MA 67.88 · ROC 1.16% · RS 14.52
6 Jan 2023
Entry
AQWA NASDAQ · GLOBAL X CLEAN WATER ETF
13.71
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals MA 17.63 · ROC 0.26% · RS 15.88
6 Jan 2023
Entry
BEDZ NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST HOTEL ETF
22.57
Trend inclusion
-
7 signals MA 23.14 · ROC 0.40% · RS 5.16