Universe
Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.
Signal Validation
US ETF Trend Performance Index
US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07%
Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr
Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85
Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322
Avg 379.0/yr ·
31.6/mo ·
7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647
Stop 20.7% ·
Warning 79.3%
Method
How The Index Works
The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.
Entry Rule
An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.
Exit Rule
A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.
Return Math
Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.
Assumptions
- Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
- New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
- Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
- Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
- Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.
Weekly Index
Cumulative Value
Latest Week
Positions In And Out
New Positions In
Entries at weekly closePositions Out
Closed at weekly close
VXZ
CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36
20% entry drawdown · -21.90%
Live Book
Current Holdings
Ticker
Entry
Last Close
Return
Signals
Activity
ROC
RS
ACES
NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY
NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New
Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ
CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New
Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO
NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY
NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD
NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU
NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO
NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL
CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL
NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED
CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU
NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62
Ledger
Transaction History
Date
Action
Ticker
Price
Reason
Return
Qualifiers
17 Apr 2026
Exit
VSLU
NYSEARCA · ETF OPPORTUNITIES TR APPLIED FINANCE VALUATION LARGE CAP ETF
45.50
Reversal Risk Warning
84.80%
Entry 10 Feb 2023
24.62
17 Apr 2026
Exit
WEBS
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY DOW JONES INTERNET BEAR 3X ETF
20.41
20% entry drawdown
-29.76%
Entry 13 Feb 2026
29.06
17 Apr 2026
Exit
XJH
CBOE · ISHARES ESG SCREENED S&P MID-CAP ETF
49.14
Reversal Risk Warning
52.74%
Entry 6 Jan 2023
32.17
17 Apr 2026
Exit
YANG
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA BEAR 3X ETF
25.42
20% entry drawdown
-20.51%
Entry 27 Mar 2026
31.98
10 Apr 2026
Exit
BRZU
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY MSCI BRAZIL BULL 2X ETF
128.84
Reversal Risk Warning
117.23%
Entry 13 Jun 2025
59.31
10 Apr 2026
Exit
EAPR
NYSEARCA · INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST EMERGING MARKETS POWER BUFFER ETF APRIL
31.51
Reversal Risk Warning
31.13%
Entry 10 Feb 2023
24.03
10 Apr 2026
Exit
EPOL
NYSEARCA · ISHARES TRUST MSCI POLAND ETF
38.99
Reversal Risk Warning
169.96%
Entry 20 Jan 2023
14.44
10 Apr 2026
Exit
FEM
NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST EMERGING MARKETS ALPHADEX FUND
32.12
Reversal Risk Warning
68.75%
Entry 17 Feb 2023
19.03
10 Apr 2026
Exit
FNGD
NYSE · Bank of Montreal
58.33
20% entry drawdown
-29.29%
Entry 27 Mar 2026
82.49
10 Apr 2026
Exit
QTJL
CBOE · Innovator Growth Accelerated Plus ETF - July
40.28
Reversal Risk Warning
87.08%
Entry 10 Mar 2023
21.53
10 Apr 2026
Exit
UBR
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA MSCI BRAZIL CAPD (POST REV SPLIT)
42.49
Reversal Risk Warning
115.85%
Entry 13 Jun 2025
19.68
3 Apr 2026
Entry
EUO
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
29.73
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 64.45 · ROC 0.84% · RS 0.49
3 Apr 2026
Exit
IAPR
NYSEARCA · INNOVATOR ETFS TRUST INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED POWER BUFFER ETF
31.86
Reversal Risk Warning
30.06%
Entry 13 Jan 2023
24.49
3 Apr 2026
Exit
PSMR
CBOE · PACER SWAN SOS MODERATE (APRIL) ETF
30.42
Reversal Risk Warning
41.49%
Entry 6 Jan 2023
21.50
3 Apr 2026
Entry
SCC
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
17.30
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 93.12 · ROC 2.06% · RS 2.89
3 Apr 2026
Entry
TAGS
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
24.76
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 71.56 · ROC 0.72% · RS 0.28
3 Apr 2026
Entry
TILL
NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
18.14
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 85.45 · ROC 0.82% · RS 1.49
27 Mar 2026
Entry
AIBD
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY AI AND BIG DATA BEAR 2X ETF
10.81
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals
MA 92.69 · ROC 2.00% · RS 8.57
27 Mar 2026
Entry
AMZD
NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY AMZN BEAR 1X SHARES
11.51
Trend inclusion
-
5 signals
MA 54.42 · ROC 1.14% · RS 6.43
27 Mar 2026
Entry
CORN
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
18.58
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 54.95 · ROC 1.05% · RS 3.18
27 Mar 2026
Entry
FAZ
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY FINANCIAL BEAR 3X ETF
55.94
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 61.86 · ROC 3.33% · RS 22.40
27 Mar 2026
Entry
FNGD
NYSE · Bank of Montreal
82.49
Trend inclusion
-
6 signals
MA 39.47 · ROC 2.45% · RS 12.31
27 Mar 2026
Entry
FXP
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
21.69
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 91.00 · ROC 1.85% · RS 10.24
27 Mar 2026
Entry
SKF
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT FINANCIALS
32.92
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 72.07 · ROC 2.32% · RS 16.07
27 Mar 2026
Entry
YANG
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY FTSE CHINA BEAR 3X ETF
31.98
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 88.68 · ROC 2.58% · RS 12.18
20 Mar 2026
Exit
MJ
NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY ALTERNATIVE HARVEST ETF
22.73
20% entry drawdown
-25.32%
Entry 12 Sep 2025
30.44
20 Mar 2026
Entry
SEF
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
34.42
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 90.18 · ROC 0.91% · RS 4.33
20 Mar 2026
Entry
WEAT
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
22.85
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 91.52 · ROC 1.16% · RS 1.79
20 Mar 2026
Entry
YXI
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
22.21
Trend inclusion
-
4 signals
MA 79.60 · ROC 0.73% · RS 3.62
13 Mar 2026
Exit
MSTZ
CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE MSTR DAILY TARGET ETF
10.46
20% entry drawdown
-23.20%
Entry 28 Nov 2025
13.62