Universe
Active US ETFs only. Equities, crypto, commodities, index benchmark records, and ETFs outside the US market are excluded from this index.
Signal Validation
US ETF Trend Performance Index
US ETFs with 4-8 positive trend weeks, a weekly close below fair value, positive Market Activity, positive 30-week SMA Rate of Change, and positive Relative Strength.
Index Value
237.04
Total Return
137.04%
CAGR
28.07%
Annualized from first index week
Edge vs Market
+7.49%/yr
Beats ^GSPC on CAGR
Risk Adjusted
Sharpe 1.85
Sortino 3.10
Current Holdings
28
Transactions
1322
Avg 379.0/yr ·
31.6/mo ·
7.3/wk
Exit Mix
647
Stop 20.7% ·
Warning 79.3%
Method
How The Index Works
The index is a weekly, equal-weighted performance model for US ETFs. It starts at 100.00 on the first transaction week after 1 Jan 2023 and is rebuilt from stored weekly closes, indicators, and Smart Money warning data.
Entry Rule
An ETF enters at that week’s close when it has 4-8 positive trend signals, the close is below that week’s fair value, Market Activity, 30-week SMA 4-week Rate of Change, and Relative Strength are all above zero, and there is no Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warning that week.
Exit Rule
A position exits at the weekly close on the first Reversal Risk Warning or Reversal Danger Warning. It also exits if the weekly close falls 20% or more below the original entry close.
Return Math
Each active holding contributes equally. The weekly index return is the average weekly close-to-close return of all positions active during that week, then compounded into the index value.
Assumptions
- Positions that exit cannot re-enter during the same positive trend run; the trend signal must reset first.
- New positions are not opened on weeks with Reversal Risk or Reversal Danger Warnings.
- Positions are closed at the last valid close if a 5x or larger weekly close scale break indicates a price-data unit change.
- Transaction prices are the stored weekly closes for the entry or exit week, except price scale-break exits, which use the last valid close.
- Returns are shown before transaction costs, bid-ask spreads, slippage, taxes, and other implementation frictions.
Weekly Index
Cumulative Value
Latest Week
Positions In And Out
New Positions In
Entries at weekly closePositions Out
Closed at weekly close
VXZ
CBOE · iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
50.36
20% entry drawdown · -21.90%
Live Book
Current Holdings
Ticker
Entry
Last Close
Return
Signals
Activity
ROC
RS
ACES
NYSEARCA · ALPS ETF TRUST CLEAN ENERGY ETF
22 Aug 202529.32
34.13
16.41%
6
31.62
0.53%
2.35
BDRY
NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY COMMODITY TRUST BREAKWAVE DRY BULK SHIPPING ETF
15 Aug 20258.02
12.27
52.99%
4
61.37
3.14%
2.83
BITI
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT BITCOIN ETF
3 Jul 202626.31
26.31
New
Entry week
4
68.64
3.09%
14.47
BTCZ
CBOE · T-REX 2X INVERSE BITCOIN DAILY TARGET ETF
3 Jul 20266.04
6.04
New
Entry week
4
79.97
5.26%
32.99
CORN
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST CORN FD SHS
27 Mar 202618.58
16.86
-9.26%
4
54.95
1.05%
3.18
DOO
NASDAQ · WISDOMTREE INTERNATIONAL DIVIDEND EX-FINANCIALS FUND N/A
15 Aug 202556.03
57.87
3.27%
4
52.78
0.35%
3.34
EMTY
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST DECLINE RETAIL STORE ETF (OST REV SPLIT)
2 May 202525.70
23.72
-7.71%
8
40.21
0.93%
0.71
ETHD
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT ETHER ETF
26 Jun 202692.05
77.58
-15.72%
4
80.97
8.40%
50.11
EUO
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST II PROSHARES ULTRASHORT EURO
3 Apr 202629.73
30.63
3.02%
4
64.45
0.84%
0.49
FXP
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW (REV/SPT)
27 Mar 202621.69
25.32
16.73%
4
91.00
1.85%
10.24
HDGE
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST RANGER EQUITY BEAR ETF NEW(POST REV SPLT
25 Apr 202518.19
15.97
-12.21%
4
72.40
1.04%
8.87
MRNY
NYSEARCA · TIDAL TRUST II YIELDMAX MRNA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF
13 Feb 202613.57
21.03
55.00%
4
92.95
3.30%
17.06
MSFD
NASDAQ · DIREXION DAILY MSFT BEAR 1X SHARES
6 Feb 202613.65
13.56
-0.65%
7
85.34
1.81%
2.36
MSOS
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
19 Jun 20264.99
4.89
-2.00%
4
55.10
3.92%
6.64
NRGU
NYSEARCA · MICROSECTORS U.S. BIG OIL 3 LEVERAGED ETNS DUE FEBRUARY 17, 2045
13 Feb 202628.66
29.75
3.80%
5
55.67
5.02%
39.88
OIO
NASDAQ · OIO Group.
23 May 20252.30
2.41
4.81%
4
66.80
1.61%
41.35
SBIT
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES ULTRASHORT BITCOIN ETF
26 Jun 202667.02
62.79
-6.31%
4
72.75
6.86%
49.97
SEF
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT FINANCIALS
20 Mar 202634.42
30.27
-12.05%
4
90.18
0.91%
4.33
SETH
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES SHORT ETHER ETF
12 Jun 202653.97
51.96
-3.72%
4
56.13
5.52%
21.48
SJB
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT HIGH YIELD
4 Apr 202515.95
15.13
-5.14%
4
52.51
0.20%
13.29
SZK
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRASHORT CONSUMER STAPLES
11 Apr 202523.38
21.03
-10.04%
4
16.44
1.13%
2.42
TAGS
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST AGRICULTURAL FD
3 Apr 202624.76
24.06
-2.81%
4
71.56
0.72%
0.28
TAIL
CBOE · CAMBRIA TAIL RISK ETF
25 Apr 202512.25
10.62
-13.31%
4
45.25
1.21%
11.14
TILL
NYSEARCA · LISTED FUND TRUST TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURL STRATEGY NO K 1 ETF
3 Apr 202618.14
17.47
-3.69%
4
85.45
0.82%
1.49
WEAT
NYSEARCA · TEUCRIUM COMMODITY TRUST WHEAT FD NEW (REV SPT)
20 Mar 202622.85
22.41
-1.93%
4
91.52
1.16%
1.79
WEED
CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
12 Jun 202621.74
21.43
-1.42%
4
48.70
2.76%
10.21
WTIU
NYSEARCA · BANK OF MONTREAL MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETNS
6 Feb 202614.40
13.28
-7.78%
4
62.69
2.75%
28.47
YXI
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST SHORT FTSE CHINA 50 NEW(P/S)
20 Mar 202622.21
24.34
9.60%
4
79.60
0.73%
3.62
Ledger
Transaction History
Date
Action
Ticker
Price
Reason
Return
Qualifiers
13 Mar 2026
Exit
SMST
NASDAQ · DEFIANCE DAILY TARGET 2X SHORT MSTR ETF
55.59
20% entry drawdown
-25.58%
Entry 28 Nov 2025
74.70
27 Feb 2026
Exit
ASA
NYSE · ASA Gold and Precious Metals Ltd
81.24
Reversal Risk Warning
380.84%
Entry 12 Apr 2024
16.90
27 Feb 2026
Exit
DGP
NYSE · Deutsche Bank AG London
235.02
Reversal Risk Warning
508.77%
Entry 10 Feb 2023
38.61
27 Feb 2026
Exit
EMET
NYSEARCA · VANECK COPPER AND GREEN METALS ETF
48.87
Reversal Risk Warning
106.29%
Entry 1 Aug 2025
23.69
27 Feb 2026
Exit
FFTY
NYSEARCA · CAPFORCE IBD 50 ETF
40.89
Reversal Risk Warning
49.61%
Entry 1 Mar 2024
27.33
27 Feb 2026
Exit
JNUG
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY JUNIOR GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 2X ETF
354.46
Reversal Risk Warning
837.23%
Entry 26 Apr 2024
37.82
27 Feb 2026
Exit
NUGT
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY GOLD MINERS INDEX BULL 2X ETF
312.93
Reversal Risk Warning
685.05%
Entry 26 Apr 2024
39.86
27 Feb 2026
Exit
RING
NASDAQ · ISHARES MSCI GLOBAL GOLD MINERS ETF
98.71
Reversal Risk Warning
309.93%
Entry 27 Jan 2023
24.08
27 Feb 2026
Exit
UTSL
NYSEARCA · DIREXION DAILY UTILITIES BULL 3X ETF
54.75
Reversal Risk Warning
123.97%
Entry 3 May 2024
24.45
20 Feb 2026
Exit
ACWX
NASDAQ · ISHARES MSCI ACWI EX U.S. ETF
73.31
Reversal Risk Warning
71.61%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
42.72
20 Feb 2026
Exit
AVES
NYSEARCA · AMERICAN CENTURY ETF TRUST AVANTIS EMERGING MKTS VALUE ETF USD
65.60
Reversal Risk Warning
68.33%
Entry 3 Feb 2023
38.97
20 Feb 2026
Exit
BRAZ
NYSEARCA · GLOBAL X FDS BRAZIL ACTIVE ETF
33.55
Reversal Risk Warning
46.45%
Entry 13 Jun 2025
22.91
20 Feb 2026
Exit
CNBS
NYSEARCA · AMPLIFY SEYMOUR CANNABIS ETF
22.54
20% entry drawdown
-22.14%
Entry 2 Jan 2026
28.95
20 Feb 2026
Exit
CWI
NYSEARCA · STATE STREET SPDR MSCI ACWI EX-US ETF
39.13
Reversal Risk Warning
73.67%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
22.53
20 Feb 2026
Exit
DMXF
NASDAQ · ISHARES ESG ADVANCED MSCI EAFE ETF
80.80
Reversal Risk Warning
53.77%
Entry 20 Jan 2023
52.54
20 Feb 2026
Exit
DNL
NYSEARCA · WISDOMTREE GLOBAL EX-U.S. QUALITY GROWTH FUND
44.03
Reversal Risk Warning
38.59%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
31.77
20 Feb 2026
Exit
FDT
NASDAQ · FIRST TRUST DEVELOPED MARKETS EX-US ALPHADEX FUND
94.93
Reversal Risk Warning
107.66%
Entry 3 Feb 2023
45.71
20 Feb 2026
Exit
IXUS
NASDAQ · ISHARES CORE MSCI TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK ETF
92.44
Reversal Risk Warning
71.96%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
53.76
20 Feb 2026
Exit
LOPP
NYSEARCA · GABELLI ETFS TR GABELLI LOVE OUR PLANET & PEOPLE ETF
37.14
Reversal Risk Warning
56.12%
Entry 6 Jan 2023
23.79
20 Feb 2026
Exit
MSOS
NYSEARCA · ADVISORSHARES TRUST PURE US CANNABIS ETF
3.77
20% entry drawdown
-21.29%
Entry 2 Jan 2026
4.79
20 Feb 2026
Exit
QAI
NYSEARCA · NYLI HEDGE MULTI-STRATEGY TRACKER ETF
34.86
Reversal Risk Warning
28.13%
Entry 27 Jan 2023
27.21
20 Feb 2026
Exit
TDI
NASDAQ · TOUCHSTONE DYNAMIC INTERNATIONAL ETF
44.03
Reversal Risk Warning
64.58%
Entry 4 Apr 2025
26.75
20 Feb 2026
Exit
VEU
NYSEARCA · VANGUARD INTL EQUITY INDEX FUND INC FTSE ALL-WORLD EX-US ETF
80.93
Reversal Risk Warning
72.64%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
46.88
20 Feb 2026
Exit
VXUS
NASDAQ · VANGUARD TOTAL INTERNATIONAL STOCK INDEX FUND ETF SHARES
82.91
Reversal Risk Warning
71.62%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
48.31
20 Feb 2026
Exit
WEED
CBOE · ROUNDHILL CANNABIS ETF
15.95
20% entry drawdown
-21.59%
Entry 2 Jan 2026
20.34
13 Feb 2026
Exit
BBJP
CBOE · JPMORGAN BETABUILDERS JAPAN ETF
76.52
Reversal Risk Warning
76.59%
Entry 27 Jan 2023
43.33
13 Feb 2026
Exit
DFAX
NYSEARCA · DIMENSIONAL ETF TRUST WORLD EX US CORE EQUITY 2 ETF
36.17
Reversal Risk Warning
75.51%
Entry 24 Feb 2023
20.61
13 Feb 2026
Exit
DFJ
NYSEARCA · WISDOMTREE TRUST JAPAN SMALLCAP DIVIDEND FD SBI USD0.001
110.63
Reversal Risk Warning
85.74%
Entry 13 Jan 2023
59.56
13 Feb 2026
Exit
EWJ
NYSEARCA · ISHARES INC MSCI JAPAN ETF NEW
93.35
Reversal Risk Warning
74.45%
Entry 27 Jan 2023
53.51
13 Feb 2026
Exit
EZJ
NYSEARCA · PROSHARES TRUST ULTRA MSCI JAPAN
68.41
Reversal Risk Warning
135.80%
Entry 3 Mar 2023
29.01