Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
MLTX options intelligence
MoonLake Immunotherapeutics options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:40 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
MLTX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 28.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.
Expected move
28.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.02
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.16
Call-side skew
Trend fit
11
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-3.0%
RS -25.1
Expected move
28.4%
Put-call volume
0.16
Volume / OI
0.02
Reference IV
1.51
Max pain
19.00
Underlying
19.02
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
324
Research Brief
MLTX has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 13.62–24.42; The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 17.00. The most active strike by current volume is 21.00.
Priced range13.62–24.42
Call concentration21.00
Put concentration17.00
Max pain reference19.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 13.62 to 24.42. Max pain at 19.00 sits inside that range, 0.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
13.6219.02 ± 5.4024.42
Confirmation level
A close beyond 24.42 or below 13.62 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 81/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure81 × 42%
+34.2
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation14 × 22%
+3.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement11 × 26%
+2.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 21.00; the largest put concentration is 17.00. The most active strike by current volume is 21.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
584
13.00-31.7%
4
323
14.00-26.4%
24
422
15.00-21.1%
1009
432
16.00-15.9%
84
1867
17.00-10.6%
275
1824
18.00-5.4%
321
717
19.00-0.1%
2378
214
20.005.2%
3201
287
21.0010.4%
3447
435
22.0015.7%
342
392
23.0020.9%
3373
21
24.0026.2%
1342
16
25.0031.4%
504
0
26.0036.7%
354
1
30.0057.7%
539
0
31.0063.0%
797
1
35.0084.0%
1709
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.51
21 Aug
22d
1.14
18 Sep
50d
1.02
20 Nov
113d
1.05
15 Jan
169d
0.99
19 Feb
204d
1.03
21 Jan
540d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 324 / 324
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $352905 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+81
1W price-3.0%
Call premium89%
Put premium11%
Notional split
C 89% / P 11%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.02
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
11/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 834 contracts traded, $298885 estimated gross traded notional, and 85% of visible notional.
$298885
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 75 contracts traded, $27330 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$27330
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 63 contracts traded, $9710 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$9710
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 108 contracts traded, $8305 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$8305
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 3 contracts traded, $3570 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$3570
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close18.44
1W-3.0%
RS-25.1
Fair value-53.2%
Options pressure81
Speculation14
Volatility96
Trend fit11
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:07
Volatility
Pressure 92
Move 27.2%
30 Jul 10:55
Volatility
Pressure 52
Move 30.1%
31 Jul 10:40
Volatility
Pressure 81
Move 28.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike3.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike7.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 6
Strike8.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 106
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 22
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 29
Puts · V 0 · OI 15
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 53
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV1.51
Put-call1.28
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV1.14
Put-call3.20
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV1.02
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts66
Avg IV1.05
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts54
Avg IV0.99
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.44
Put IV1.48
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.10
Put IV1.11
Skew0.01
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.03
Put IV1.05
Skew0.02
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV1.01
Put IV1.07
Skew0.06
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.97
Put IV0.99
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMLTX270115C00020000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume310
OI826
IV1.00
ContractMLTX261120C00030000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike30.00
Volume252
OI1222
IV1.03
ContractMLTX261120C00020000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike20.00
Volume251
OI150
IV1.10
ContractMLTX260821P00021000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike21.00
Volume64
OI287
IV1.28
ContractMLTX260821C00031000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike31.00
Volume25
OI797
IV1.47
ContractMLTX260821P00018000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume20
OI1824
IV1.76
ContractMLTX260821P00016000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume20
OI432
IV1.48
ContractMLTX270115C00050000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike50.00
Volume19
OI2478
IV0.95
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.