Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
SAIA options intelligence
Saia Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
54
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:11 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
SAIA currently carries volatility options pressure with a 54/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.30.
Expected move
17.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.30
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
3.86
Put-side skew
Trend fit
40
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-17.9%
RS -11.3
Expected move
17.4%
Put-call volume
3.86
Volume / OI
0.30
Reference IV
0.53
Max pain
440.00
Underlying
423.68
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
372
Research Brief
SAIA has a volatility chain read with 54/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 349.85–497.51; The largest call open-interest concentration is 510.00; the largest put concentration is 390.00. The most active strike by current volume is 390.00.
Priced range349.85–497.51
Call concentration510.00
Put concentration390.00
Max pain reference440.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 349.85 to 497.51. Max pain at 440.00 sits inside that range, 3.9% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
349.85423.68 ± 73.83497.51
Confirmation level
A close beyond 497.51 or below 349.85 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 54/100
Pressure is 61/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure61 × 42%
+25.8
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation47 × 22%
+10.3
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement40 × 26%
+10.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility77 × 10%
+7.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 510.00; the largest put concentration is 390.00. The most active strike by current volume is 390.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1
300.00-29.2%
0
15
330.00-22.1%
0
102
340.00-19.8%
0
111
350.00-17.4%
0
18
360.00-15.0%
0
14
370.00-12.7%
0
31
380.00-10.3%
0
188
390.00-7.9%
0
63
400.00-5.6%
1
129
410.00-3.2%
9
4
420.00-0.9%
2
14
430.001.5%
1
13
440.003.9%
51
3
450.006.2%
1
2
470.0010.9%
9
0
510.0020.4%
207
0
560.0032.2%
3
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.53
21 Aug
22d
0.46
18 Sep
50d
0.48
18 Dec
141d
0.48
19 Mar
232d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
340
350
360
370
380
390
400
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
500
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 372 / 372
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.1M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-61
1W price-17.9%
Call premium12%
Put premium88%
Notional split
C 12% / P 88%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.30
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
40/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 570 contracts traded, $1.8M estimated gross traded notional, and 86% of visible notional.
$1.8M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 16 contracts traded, $132825 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$132825
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 14 contracts traded, $42450 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$42450
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 61 contracts traded, $32782 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$32782
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 50 contracts traded, $25000 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$25000
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close347.63
1W-17.9%
RS-11.3
Fair value-13.7%
Options pressure-61
Speculation47
Volatility77
Trend fit40
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:24
Volatility
Pressure -81
Move 12.7%
30 Jul 10:21
Volatility
Pressure -80
Move 12.7%
31 Jul 10:11
Volatility
Pressure -61
Move 17.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike290.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike300.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 53 · OI 1
Strike310.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike320.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike330.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 3 · OI 15
Strike340.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 6 · OI 102
Strike350.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 0
Puts · V 127 · OI 111
Strike360.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 18
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts70
Avg IV0.53
Put-call5.00
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts114
Avg IV0.46
Put-call0.93
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.48
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts84
Avg IV0.48
Put-call0.39
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.67
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.25
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.45
Put IV0.44
Skew-0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.51
Skew0.04
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.50
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSAIA260821P00390000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike390.00
Volume178
OI188
IV0.45
ContractSAIA260821P00350000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike350.00
Volume127
OI111
IV0.45
ContractSAIA260821P00370000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike370.00
Volume116
OI14
IV0.44
ContractSAIA260821P00410000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike410.00
Volume78
OI129
IV0.49
ContractSAIA260821P00300000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike300.00
Volume53
OI1
IV0.43
ContractSAIA260821C00440000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike440.00
Volume50
OI51
IV0.30
ContractSAIA260821C00390000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike390.00
Volume21
OI-
IV0.41
ContractSAIA270319C00300000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike300.00
Volume15
OI-
IV0.49
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.