Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
NTRA options intelligence
Natera Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
50
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:00 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
NTRA currently carries volatility options pressure with a 50/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 13.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
13.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.34
Call-side skew
Trend fit
47
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.2%
RS 17.3
Expected move
13.6%
Put-call volume
0.34
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.66
Max pain
230.00
Underlying
261.99
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
516
Research Brief
NTRA has a volatility chain read with 50/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 226.39–297.59; The largest call open-interest concentration is 270.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 340.00.
Priced range226.39–297.59
Call concentration270.00
Put concentration170.00
Max pain reference230.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 226.39 to 297.59. Max pain at 230.00 sits inside that range, 12.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
226.39261.99 ± 35.60297.59
Confirmation level
A close beyond 297.59 or below 226.39 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 50/100
Pressure is 51/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure51 × 42%
+21.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation36 × 22%
+8.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement47 × 26%
+12.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility86 × 10%
+8.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 270.00; the largest put concentration is 170.00. The most active strike by current volume is 340.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
345
160.00-38.9%
1
100
165.00-37.0%
181
357
170.00-35.1%
10
242
175.00-33.2%
1
332
190.00-27.5%
2
229
195.00-25.6%
7
67
220.00-16.0%
190
160
230.00-12.2%
57
79
240.00-8.4%
141
35
250.00-4.6%
200
51
260.00-0.8%
368
55
270.003.1%
2709
95
280.006.9%
122
19
290.0010.7%
1158
11
300.0014.5%
1722
1
320.0022.1%
217
2
330.0026.0%
310
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.66
21 Aug
22d
0.58
18 Sep
50d
0.54
16 Oct
78d
0.57
20 Nov
113d
0.56
18 Dec
141d
0.55
15 Jan
169d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
290
300
310
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 516 / 516
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.0M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+51
1W price+2.2%
Call premium89%
Put premium11%
Notional split
C 89% / P 11%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
47/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 179 contracts traded, $633560 estimated gross traded notional, and 62% of visible notional.
$633560
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 19 contracts traded, $56345 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$56345
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 7 contracts traded, $54380 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$54380
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 9 contracts traded, $40095 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$40095
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 52 contracts traded, $38848 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$38848
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close267.76
1W+2.2%
RS17.3
Fair value+85.1%
Options pressure51
Speculation36
Volatility86
Trend fit47
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:14
Bullish
Pressure 42
Move 12.8%
30 Jul 10:10
Volatility
Pressure -59
Move 12.7%
30 Jul 23:27
Volatility
Pressure -27
Move 13.6%
31 Jul 00:09
Volatility
Pressure -27
Move 13.6%
31 Jul 10:00
Volatility
Pressure 51
Move 13.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike105.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike110.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike115.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike120.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike125.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike130.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike135.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV0.66
Put-call0.59
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts82
Avg IV0.58
Put-call1.44
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts88
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.59
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts88
Avg IV0.57
Put-call0.13
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts86
Avg IV0.56
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.70
Skew0.09
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.57
Put IV0.60
Skew0.03
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.56
Skew0.02
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.58
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.56
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractNTRA261120C00270000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike270.00
Volume168
OI505
IV0.57
ContractNTRA260821C00340000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike340.00
Volume19
OI65
IV0.65
ContractNTRA260918P00260000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike260.00
Volume18
OI14
IV0.57
ContractNTRA261016C00390000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike390.00
Volume18
OI4
IV0.53
ContractNTRA260918C00260000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike260.00
Volume15
OI20
IV0.59
ContractNTRA260821C00270000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike270.00
Volume13
OI2709
IV0.66
ContractNTRA261120P00180000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike180.00
Volume12
OI1274
IV0.66
ContractNTRA261120P00200000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike200.00
Volume8
OI1168
IV0.62
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.