Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
XMAG options intelligence
DEFIANCE LARGE CAP EX-MAG 7 ETF options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
46
Market data through 4 Aug 2026
Checked 5 Aug 2026 07:50 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
XMAG currently carries bearish options pressure with a 46/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 2.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
2.0%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
-
Balanced tape
Trend fit
9
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.2%
RS 0.5
Expected move
2.0%
Put-call volume
-
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.09
Max pain
16.00
Underlying
25.36
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
168
Research Brief
XMAG has a bearish chain read with 46/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 24.85–25.87; The largest call open-interest concentration is 26.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00.
Priced range24.85–25.87
Call concentration26.00
Put concentration16.00
Max pain reference16.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 24.85 to 25.87. Max pain at 16.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
24.8525.36 ± 0.5125.87
Confirmation level
A close beyond 25.87 or below 24.85 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 46/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+41.9
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation1 × 22%
+0.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement9 × 26%
+2.2
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility15 × 10%
+1.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 26.00; the largest put concentration is 16.00. The most active strike by current volume is 16.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
16.00-36.9%
0
0
17.00-33.0%
0
0
18.00-29.0%
0
0
19.00-25.1%
0
0
20.00-21.1%
0
0
21.00-17.2%
0
0
22.00-13.2%
0
0
23.00-9.3%
0
0
24.00-5.4%
0
0
25.00-1.4%
0
0
26.002.5%
1
0
27.006.5%
1
0
28.0010.4%
0
0
29.0014.4%
0
0
30.0018.3%
0
0
31.0022.2%
0
0
32.0026.2%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Negative gamma proxy
Put-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the call-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile-$6,029Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak26.00+$3,124
Negative peak27.00-$11,413
Nearest balance26.21Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
20.00-21.1%
+$0
22.00-13.2%
+$0
23.00-9.3%
-$468
24.00-5.4%
+$55
25.00-1.4%
+$2,225
26.002.5%
+$3,124
27.006.5%
-$11,413
28.0010.4%
+$173
29.0014.4%
+$276
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.09
21 Aug
17d
0.06
18 Sep
45d
0.06
18 Dec
136d
0.08
19 Mar
227d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 4 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 168 / 168
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
Put-side pressure is present before a decisive weekly price breakdown.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $278 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 22-45 days · itm, and a bearish flow before price confirmation backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-100
1W price-0.2%
Call premium0%
Put premium100%
Notional split
C 0% / P 100%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
9/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 3 contracts traded, $278 estimated gross traded notional, and 100% of visible notional.
$278
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
5 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 5 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close25.36
1W-0.2%
RS0.5
Fair value+16.4%
Options pressure-100
Speculation1
Volatility15
Trend fit9
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 5/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 5/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 5/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 13:27
Mixed
Pressure 1
Move 1.9%
30 Jul 13:14
Bearish
Pressure -99
Move 2.1%
31 Jul 12:53
Bearish
Pressure -99
Move 2.1%
3 Aug 11:43
Bullish
Pressure 100
Move 2.3%
4 Aug 12:53
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 1.9%
5 Aug 06:50
Bearish
Pressure -100
Move 2.0%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike16.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike17.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike18.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike19.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike21.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike22.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike23.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.09
Put-call-
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.06
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts42
Avg IV0.06
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts42
Avg IV0.08
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.08
Put IV0.12
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.11
Put IV0.07
Skew-0.04
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.02
Put IV0.05
Skew0.03
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.01
Put IV0.04
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractXMAG260918P00027000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike27.00
Volume3
OI76
IV0.12
ContractXMAG260918P00023000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike23.00
Volume-
OI28
IV0.18
ContractXMAG261218C00026000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike26.00
Volume-
OI23
IV0.01
ContractXMAG261218C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike25.00
Volume-
OI22
IV0.12
ContractXMAG260918C00023000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike23.00
Volume-
OI14
IV0.01
ContractXMAG260918C00027000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike27.00
Volume-
OI12
IV0.11
ContractXMAG260918C00029000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike29.00
Volume-
OI10
IV0.14
ContractXMAG260918C00022000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.00
Volume-
OI9
IV0.01
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.