Ticker Options Intelligence

TFPM options intelligence

Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 37 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:22 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

TFPM currently carries bullish options pressure with a 37/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 9.7%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.22

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +6.1%

RS -15.0

Expected move 9.7%
Put-call volume 0.22
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 0.41
Max pain 30.00
Underlying 29.03
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 68

Research Brief

TFPM has a bullish chain read with 37/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 26.20–31.86; The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00.

Priced range26.20–31.86
Call concentration35.00
Put concentration30.00
Max pain reference30.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 26.20 to 31.86. Max pain at 30.00 sits inside that range, 3.3% above spot.

Spot Max pain
26.2029.03 ± 2.8331.86
Confirmation level

A close beyond 31.86 or below 26.20 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 37/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 70/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure70 × 42%
+29.3

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation6 × 22%
+1.3

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility68 × 10%
+6.8

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score37.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 35.00; the largest put concentration is 30.00. The most active strike by current volume is 35.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
17.50-39.7%
1
1
20.00-31.1%
0
4
22.50-22.5%
1
204
25.00-13.9%
7
412
30.003.3%
280
13
35.0020.6%
368
0
40.0037.8%
7
0
45.0055.0%
134
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Back-loaded volatility

0.87× front/back

Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.

0.41 21 Aug 22d
0.48 18 Sep 50d
0.44 16 Oct 78d
0.47 15 Jan 169d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

25
30
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
68 / 68
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

79/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $10928 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+70
1W price+6.1%
Call premium83%
Put premium17%
Notional split C 83% / P 17% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 30 contracts traded, $5175 estimated gross traded notional, and 47% of visible notional.
$5175
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 4 contracts traded, $2580 estimated gross traded notional, and 24% of visible notional.
$2580
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 8 contracts traded, $1240 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$1240
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 20 contracts traded, $900 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$900
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 1 contracts traded, $445 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$445

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close29.03
1W+6.1%
RS-15.0
Fair value+37.0%
Options pressure70
Speculation6
Volatility68
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 9.7% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.41 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.22 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:34 Bullish
Pressure 86
Move 13.6%
30 Jul 10:32 Bullish
Pressure 40
Move 10.9%
31 Jul 10:22 Bullish
Pressure 70
Move 9.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike22.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike25.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 204
Strike30.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 280
Puts · V 8 · OI 412
Strike35.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 368
Puts · V 0 · OI 13
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 134
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.38
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.48
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.44
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts18
Avg IV0.47
Put-call1.00

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.50
Put IV0.54
Skew0.04
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.59
Skew0.12
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.46
Put IV0.49
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.56
Put IV0.46
Skew-0.10

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractTFPM260918C00030000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike30.00
Volume18
OI25
IV0.47
ContractTFPM260821C00035000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike35.00
Volume15
OI368
IV0.50
ContractTFPM260821P00030000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume8
OI412
IV0.48
ContractTFPM261016C00035000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike35.00
Volume6
OI311
IV0.46
ContractTFPM260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume5
OI280
IV0.48
ContractTFPM261016C00030000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike30.00
Volume4
OI404
IV0.45
ContractTFPM270115C00025000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike25.00
Volume4
OI291
IV0.45
ContractTFPM270115P00022500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike22.50
Volume2
OI27
IV0.45