Primary read
Bearish
Put-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
COGT options intelligence
Cogent Biosciences Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 06:11 · complete available chain
Put-side pressure
Bearish pressure
COGT currently carries bearish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.9%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.
Expected move
10.9%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.01
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
4.26
Put-side skew
Trend fit
48
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-2.1%
RS 18.1
Expected move
10.9%
Put-call volume
4.26
Volume / OI
0.01
Reference IV
0.50
Max pain
37.00
Underlying
38.93
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
266
Research Brief
COGT has a bearish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 34.68–43.18; The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 37.00. The most active strike by current volume is 37.00.
Priced range34.68–43.18
Call concentration40.00
Put concentration37.00
Max pain reference37.00
- Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
- Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 34.68 to 43.18. Max pain at 37.00 sits inside that range, 5.0% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
34.6838.93 ± 4.2543.18
Confirmation level
A close beyond 43.18 or below 34.68 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 53/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure53 × 42%
+22.4
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation8 × 22%
+1.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement48 × 26%
+12.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility75 × 10%
+7.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 40.00; the largest put concentration is 37.00. The most active strike by current volume is 37.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
274
25.00-35.8%
20
51
30.00-22.9%
16
179
32.00-17.8%
0
83
33.00-15.2%
10
18
34.00-12.7%
6
191
35.00-10.1%
46
37
36.00-7.5%
1
2228
37.00-5.0%
2194
365
38.00-2.4%
7
0
39.000.2%
2
170
40.002.7%
4285
0
41.005.3%
22
0
42.007.9%
294
0
45.0015.6%
138
0
48.0023.3%
24
1
50.0028.4%
713
0
60.0054.1%
18
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$737,180Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak40.00+$590,952
Negative peak38.00-$82,799
Nearest balance39.00Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
28.00-28.1%
+$1,135
30.00-22.9%
-$1,190
31.00-20.4%
+$32
32.00-17.8%
-$8,721
33.00-15.2%
-$386
34.00-12.7%
-$864
35.00-10.1%
+$6,283
36.00-7.5%
-$3,703
37.00-5.0%
+$22,069
38.00-2.4%
-$82,799
39.000.2%
+$49
40.002.7%
+$590,952
41.005.3%
+$1,885
42.007.9%
+$62,723
43.0010.5%
+$2,583
44.0013.0%
+$82
45.0015.6%
+$6,172
46.0018.2%
+$99
47.0020.7%
+$3
48.0023.3%
+$255
50.0028.4%
+$95,820
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.50
21 Aug
21d
0.61
18 Sep
49d
0.62
20 Nov
112d
0.66
15 Jan
168d
0.64
19 Feb
203d
0.62
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 266 / 266
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options pressure and weekly price action are both cautionary.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $46,444 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · atm, and a bearish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-53
1W price-2.1%
Call premium54%
Put premium46%
Notional split
C 54% / P 46%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.01
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
48/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 1 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
puts cluster with 94 contracts traded, $14,660 estimated gross traded notional, and 32% of visible notional.
$14,660
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $10,700 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$10,700
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 5 contracts traded, $5,970 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$5,970
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 69 contracts traded, $5,838 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$5,838
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 8 contracts traded, $3,825 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$3,825
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close38.93
1W-2.1%
RS18.1
Fair value+148.9%
Options pressure-53
Speculation8
Volatility75
Trend fit48
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:36
Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 10.9%
30 Jul 10:33
Bearish
Pressure -49
Move 13.5%
31 Jul 10:22
Volatility
Pressure 69
Move 13.1%
31 Jul 17:04
Volatility
Pressure 19
Move 12.4%
31 Jul 17:43
Volatility
Pressure 19
Move 12.4%
31 Jul 22:59
Volatility
Pressure 16
Move 11.1%
1 Aug 00:02
Volatility
Pressure 16
Move 11.1%
1 Aug 01:52
Bearish
Pressure -53
Move 11.1%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike20.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike25.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 20
Puts · V 3 · OI 274
Strike30.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 16
Puts · V 0 · OI 51
Strike31.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike32.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 179
Strike33.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 83
Strike34.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 18
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 46
Puts · V 0 · OI 191
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts48
Avg IV0.50
Put-call20.50
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.61
Put-call0.11
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.62
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts44
Avg IV0.66
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts44
Avg IV0.64
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.10
Put IV0.47
Skew-0.62
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.75
Put IV0.53
Skew-0.21
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.60
Put IV0.60
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.75
Skew0.02
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.64
Skew-0.01
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCOGT260821P00037000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike37.00
Volume61
OI2228
IV0.48
ContractCOGT260821P00038000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike38.00
Volume50
OI365
IV0.06
ContractCOGT260821P00039000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike39.00
Volume44
OI-
IV0.38
ContractCOGT260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume6
OI6
IV0.92
ContractCOGT260821P00032000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike32.00
Volume5
OI179
IV0.69
ContractCOGT260918C00039000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike39.00
Volume5
OI-
IV0.67
ContractCOGT260918C00043000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike43.00
Volume5
OI-
IV0.70
ContractCOGT260821C00037000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike37.00
Volume4
OI2194
IV0.45
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.