Ticker Options Intelligence

INV options intelligence

Innventure, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 27 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 1 Aug 2026 15:16 · complete available chain

Options-market disagreement

Mixed pressure

INV currently carries mixed options pressure with a 27/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 33.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.02.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Mixed

Options-market disagreement

Expected move 33.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.02

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.10

Balanced tape

Trend fit 57

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +11.4%

RS -35.5

Expected move 33.4%
Put-call volume 1.10
Volume / OI 0.02
Reference IV 1.92
Max pain 5.00
Underlying 3.22
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 36

Research Brief

INV has a mixed chain read with 27/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 2.14–4.30; The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00.

Priced range2.14–4.30
Call concentration10.00
Put concentration5.00
Max pain reference5.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 2.14 to 4.30. Max pain at 5.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
2.143.22 ± 1.084.30
Confirmation level

A close beyond 4.30 or below 2.14 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 27/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 5/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure5 × 42%
+2.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation2 × 22%
+0.5

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement57 × 26%
+14.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score26.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 10.00; the largest put concentration is 5.00. The most active strike by current volume is 5.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1558
2.50-22.4%
2546
4435
5.0055.3%
6936
57
7.50132.9%
3904
37
10.00210.6%
7065
0
12.50288.2%
237
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.35× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.92 21 Aug 21d
1.19 18 Sep 49d
1.33 20 Nov 112d
1.42 19 Feb 203d

Volatility by Strike

Smile incomplete

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

There is not enough comparable OTM call and put volatility to classify the smile.

Comparable strike volatility is unavailable.

Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A97/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
36 / 36
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

81/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence No clean flow/price divergence

The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $69298 of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+5
1W price+11.4%
Call premium19%
Put premium81%
Notional split C 19% / P 81% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.02 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 57/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 13 Aug Matched earnings event is 11 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 91+ days · ITM
Puts · 91+ days · ITM puts cluster with 200 contracts traded, $44000 estimated gross traded notional, and 63% of visible notional.
$44000
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 230 contracts traded, $12075 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$12075
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 355 contracts traded, $11750 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$11750
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $900 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$900
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 37 contracts traded, $345 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$345

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close3.22
1W+11.4%
RS-35.5
Fair value-49.5%
Options pressure5
Speculation2
Volatility96
Trend fit57

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 33.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 1.92 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.10 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.02 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 11:27 Volatility
Pressure -20
Move 33.7%
30 Jul 11:12 Volatility
Pressure 94
Move 32.9%
31 Jul 13:33 Bullish
Pressure 70
Move 38.1%
31 Jul 16:19 Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 37.2%
1 Aug 14:16 Mixed
Pressure 5
Move 33.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike2.50
Calls · V 10 · OI 2546
Puts · V 13 · OI 1558
Strike5.00
Calls · V 32 · OI 6936
Puts · V 0 · OI 4435
Strike7.50
Calls · V 5 · OI 3904
Puts · V 0 · OI 57
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7065
Puts · V 0 · OI 37
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 237
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV1.92
Put-call0.28
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV1.19
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV1.33
Put-call1.21
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts10
Avg IV1.42
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.62
Put IV1.63
Skew0.01
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.77
Put IV1.40
Skew-0.37
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV1.47
Put IV1.40
Skew-0.07
19 Feb 2027Call IV premium
Call IV1.49
Put IV1.39
Skew-0.10

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractINV261120C00007500
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike7.50
Volume300
OI4212
IV1.47
ContractINV261120P00002500
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike2.50
Volume230
OI1045
IV1.40
ContractINV261120P00005000
SidePut
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike5.00
Volume200
OI1214
IV1.30
ContractINV261120C00005000
SideCall
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Strike5.00
Volume55
OI1839
IV1.34
ContractINV260821C00005000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume32
OI6936
IV1.62
ContractINV260821P00002500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume13
OI1558
IV1.63
ContractINV260821C00002500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike2.50
Volume10
OI2546
IV1.65
ContractINV260821C00007500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike7.50
Volume5
OI3904
IV1.62