Ticker Options Intelligence

HBM options intelligence

Hudbay Minerals Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 52 Market data through 29 Jul 2026 Checked 30 Jul 2026 11:22 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

HBM currently carries volatility options pressure with a 52/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 14.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 14.2%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.05

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.05

Call-side skew

Trend fit 0

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +9.8%

RS 4.5

Expected move 14.2%
Put-call volume 0.05
Volume / OI 0.05
Reference IV 0.73
Max pain 20.00
Underlying 22.35
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 100

Research Brief

HBM has a volatility chain read with 52/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 19.18–25.52; The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00.

Priced range19.18–25.52
Call concentration25.00
Put concentration20.00
Max pain reference20.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 19.18 to 25.52. Max pain at 20.00 sits inside that range, 10.5% below spot.

Spot Max pain
19.1822.35 ± 3.1725.52
Confirmation level

A close beyond 25.52 or below 19.18 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 52/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 98/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure98 × 42%
+41.2

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation7 × 22%
+1.6

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility91 × 10%
+9.1

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score51.8Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 25.00; the largest put concentration is 20.00. The most active strike by current volume is 25.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
16
15.00-32.9%
10
293
17.50-21.7%
14
350
20.00-10.5%
194
99
22.500.7%
305
76
25.0011.9%
1478
1
30.0034.2%
851
0
35.0056.6%
269
0
40.0079.0%
7
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Balanced volatility curve

1.07× front/back

Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.

0.73 21 Aug 22d
0.72 18 Sep 50d
0.73 16 Oct 78d
0.72 20 Nov 113d
0.68 15 Jan 169d

Volatility by Strike

Balanced wings

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.

20
23
25
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

No independently verifiable option-expiry outcomes have matured yet. Legacy snapshots without a point-in-time market reference and repeated same-session snapshots are deliberately excluded.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
29 Jul 2026
Calculation
v1.x legacy
Contracts
100 / 100
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

83/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $173378 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 46-90 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+98
1W price+9.8%
Call premium97%
Put premium3%
Notional split C 97% / P 3% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.05 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 0/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 31 Jul Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM calls cluster with 820 contracts traded, $116105 estimated gross traded notional, and 67% of visible notional.
$116105
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM calls cluster with 650 contracts traded, $35110 estimated gross traded notional, and 20% of visible notional.
$35110
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 14 contracts traded, $6275 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$6275
Puts · 22-45 days · OTM puts cluster with 64 contracts traded, $3795 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$3795
Calls · 22-45 days · ATM calls cluster with 27 contracts traded, $3780 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$3780

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Negative Options disagreement

Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

1 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 1 completed session

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close22.35
1W+9.8%
RS4.5
Fair value+92.5%
Options pressure98
Speculation7
Volatility91
Trend fit0

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 14.2% history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
IV 0.73 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.05 history building
30d avg - · 1/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 1/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 1/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:25 Bullish
Pressure 19
Move 16.1%
30 Jul 10:22 Volatility
Pressure 98
Move 14.2%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 16
Strike17.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 14
Puts · V 1 · OI 293
Strike20.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 194
Puts · V 63 · OI 350
Strike22.50
Calls · V 27 · OI 305
Puts · V 6 · OI 99
Strike25.00
Calls · V 636 · OI 1478
Puts · V 0 · OI 76
Strike30.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 851
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike35.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 269
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.73
Put-call0.10
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts16
Avg IV0.72
Put-call0.01
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.73
Put-call-
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts24
Avg IV0.72
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts20
Avg IV0.68
Put-call-

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.69
Put IV0.66
Skew-0.03
18 Sep 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.88
Put IV0.68
Skew-0.20
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.75
Put IV0.71
Skew-0.04
20 Nov 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.73
Put IV0.66
Skew-0.07
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.66
Put IV0.65
Skew-0.01

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractHBM260918C00025000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike25.00
Volume666
OI1017
IV0.73
ContractHBM260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume636
OI1478
IV0.69
ContractHBM261016C00025000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike25.00
Volume150
OI503
IV0.68
ContractHBM260821P00020000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume63
OI350
IV0.66
ContractHBM260821C00022500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike22.50
Volume27
OI305
IV0.73
ContractHBM260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume10
OI21
IV0.87
ContractHBM260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume8
OI851
IV0.78
ContractHBM270115C00045000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike45.00
Volume8
OI90
IV0.70