Ticker Options Intelligence

KGS options intelligence

Kodiak Gas Services, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 53 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 20:02 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

KGS currently carries volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.24.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 12.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.24

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.27

Call-side skew

Trend fit 38

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -0.6%

RS 12.0

Expected move 12.4%
Put-call volume 0.27
Volume / OI 0.24
Reference IV 0.62
Max pain 65.00
Underlying 59.08
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 144

Research Brief

KGS has a volatility chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 51.73–66.43; The largest call open-interest concentration is 72.50; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 65.00.

Priced range51.73–66.43
Call concentration72.50
Put concentration65.00
Max pain reference65.00
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 51.73 to 66.43. Max pain at 65.00 sits inside that range, 10.0% above spot.

Spot Max pain
51.7359.08 ± 7.3566.43
Confirmation level

A close beyond 66.43 or below 51.73 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 53/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 59/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure59 × 42%
+24.8

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation46 × 22%
+10.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement38 × 26%
+9.9

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility83 × 10%
+8.3

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score53.1Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 72.50; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 65.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
42.50-28.1%
1
256
55.00-6.9%
201
506
60.001.6%
304
510
62.505.8%
2
930
65.0010.0%
81
5
67.5014.3%
6
10
70.0018.5%
369
0
72.5022.7%
826
0
75.0026.9%
511
0
77.5031.2%
6
0
80.0035.4%
2
0
85.0043.9%
2
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.31× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.62 21 Aug 21d
0.54 18 Sep 49d
0.56 16 Oct 77d
0.43 15 Jan 168d
0.47 21 Jan 539d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

55
60
63
65
68
70
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A99/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
144 / 144
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

84/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.6M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+59
1W price-0.6%
Call premium78%
Put premium22%
Notional split C 78% / P 22% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.24 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 38/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 5 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 274 contracts traded, $648436 estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$648436
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 518 contracts traded, $275835 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$275835
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM puts cluster with 321 contracts traded, $248190 estimated gross traded notional, and 15% of visible notional.
$248190
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM calls cluster with 202 contracts traded, $120225 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$120225
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 201 contracts traded, $77505 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$77505

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close58.71
1W-0.6%
RS12.0
Fair value+71.4%
Options pressure59
Speculation46
Volatility83
Trend fit38

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.62 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.27 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.24 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:34 Volatility
Pressure -89
Move 14.3%
30 Jul 10:31 Volatility
Pressure -53
Move 13.2%
31 Jul 10:21 Volatility
Pressure -81
Move 11.3%
31 Jul 13:39 Mixed
Pressure -1
Move 13.8%
31 Jul 15:44 Volatility
Pressure 53
Move 10.5%
31 Jul 17:00 Volatility
Pressure 53
Move 10.5%
31 Jul 18:01 Volatility
Pressure 53
Move 12.8%
31 Jul 19:02 Volatility
Pressure 59
Move 12.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike42.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 201 · OI 201
Puts · V 1 · OI 256
Strike60.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 304
Puts · V 1 · OI 506
Strike62.50
Calls · V 7 · OI 2
Puts · V 10 · OI 510
Strike65.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 81
Puts · V 300 · OI 930
Strike67.50
Calls · V 10 · OI 6
Puts · V 1 · OI 5
Strike70.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 369
Puts · V 10 · OI 10
Strike72.50
Calls · V 300 · OI 826
Puts · V 0 · OI 0

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.62
Put-call0.60
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts7
Avg IV0.54
Put-call0.13
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts33
Avg IV0.56
Put-call0.03
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts49
Avg IV0.43
Put-call0.46
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts37
Avg IV0.47
Put-call0.04

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.72
Skew0.17
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.52
Skew0.01
16 Oct 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.52
Skew-0.13
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.57
Put IV0.41
Skew-0.15
21 Jan 2028Call IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.45
Skew-0.06

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractKGS260918P00065000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike65.00
Volume-
OI11
IV0.55
ContractKGS261016P00057500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike57.50
Volume-
OI10
IV0.51
ContractKGS261016P00032500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike32.50
Volume-
OI10
IV0.98
ContractKGS261016P00072500
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike72.50
Volume-
OI7
IV0.63
ContractKGS260918C00067500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike67.50
Volume-
OI6
IV0.55
ContractKGS260918C00072500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike72.50
Volume-
OI6
IV0.60
ContractKGS270115C00105000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike105.00
Volume-
OI3
IV0.67
ContractKGS280121C00067500
SideCall
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike67.50
Volume-
OI1
IV0.67